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Market Brief – Monday 8th July 2019

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX – 6746 (+99 or +1.49%)

The ASX has again broken to new multi-year highs and now has its sights at all-time highs. We will be discussing this in the MEMBER PORTAL.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Wed 10:30 – Westpac Consumer Sentiment

For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX hold above 6720. Should this occur we will look for a test of 6804. A strong break of this level however could see the ASX rally quickly to 6850, and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 7011.

If the ASX cannot close above 6720, we will look for a move back down to 6682. A strong break and close below this level however could see the ASX move lower into 6544 before a pause; and if downside momentum is very strong, we could see a move down to 6435.

 

EUROPE

DAX – 12577 (+177 or +1.43%)

The DAX gapped strongly last week and held its gap. Will we see further upside this week or are there more surprises in store?

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Thu 21:30 – ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

For a continued move to the upside we must see the DAX hold above 12384. Should this occur we will look for a move off 12566 into 12714. If momentum is very strong, we could see a fast move  to 12921.

If the DAX fails to hold above 12384, we will look for a move back down to 12198. Any break below this level however could see the DAX sell-off sharply into 12000 this week.

 

US

SP500 – 2987 (+38 or +1.29%)

The S&P finally reached 3000 and after selling off has managed to recover. Can it continue higher? We will be discussing this market in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 22:45 – FED Chair Powell Speaks
Thu 00:00 – FED Chair Powell Testifies
Thu 04:00 – FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thu 22:30 – CPI (monthly)
Fri 00:00 – FED Chair Powell Testifies
Fri 22:30 – PPI (monthly)

For a move higher we would like to see the S&P hold above 2985. Should this occur we will look for a move to 3003. A strong break above this level however sets the stage for a move higher into 3066.

If we cannot close above 2985, we could see this market retest 2960. A break of this level however may result in quick move down to 2941; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see sharp moves down into 2902 and 2870.

 

 

FOREX

AUD/USD – 0.6978 (-45 or -0.64%)

It was a volatile week for the Aussie Dollar with RBA yet again cutting rates.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Wed 10:30 – Westpac Consumer Sentiment

For a move higher, we would first like to see the AUD close above 0.7014. Should this occur we will look for a move into 0.7113, and if upside momentum remains very strong we cannot rule out a move to 0.7197 – 0.7236 before a pause.

If the AUD cannot close above 0.7014, we will look for a move lower into 6958. A break and close below this level however could see a sharp decline into 0.6934; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we cannot rule out a move into 0.6830.

 

 

EUR/USD – 1.1225 (-145 or -1.28%)

The Euro sold off last week as it tests the important 1.1200 level. We will be covering this market exclusively in the MEMBER PORTAL

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Sun ALL DAY – Greek Parliamentary Election
Thu 21:30 – ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

For a move higher we would like to see the EURO close above 1.1249 early in the week. Should this occur we could see a retest into 1.1335 and any breaks above this level may mean a quick move into 1.1453 before a pause. A strong close above this level however could see the EURO rally strong into 1.1496 by the week’s end.

 If the EURO cannot close above 1.1249, we could see a move down into 1.1201 before a pause. A strong break of this level may result in a move into, however any weakness below this level could see a sharp drop into 1.1117 before the week’s end.

 

 

GBP/USD – 1.2519 (-176 or -1.39%)

Like the Euro the Pound was also lower last week and again testing a very key level at 1.2520. We will be discussing this in the MEMBER PORTAL this week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Wed 18:30 – GDP (monthly), Manufacturing Production (monthly)
Thu 19:30 – BoE Financial Stability Report

For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable close above 1.2622, followed by a retest of 1.2720 before a pause. Should this occur we will look for a move to 1.2868; and if momentum is very strong, we could see a stronger move into 1.3035.

On the downside, a close below 1.2480 could see this market sell off strongly into 1.2350. Any further weakness below this level could see the Pound continue to slide down into 1.2297; and if momentum to the downside is very strong this week we cannot rule out a move to 1.2195.

 

 

USD/JPY – 108.47 (+55 or +0.51%)

The $/YEN continues its short squeeze as discussed last week and this week is yet another test for the bulls.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Mon 10:30 – BoJ Governor Kuroda speaks

For a move to the upside we must now see this market hold above 108.31, on its way to retesting 109.21 before a pause. A strong break and close above this level could then see the $/YEN rally into 109.94, and if momentum is very strong we could see moves to 110.31 and 110.78.

If we cannot hold above 108.31, we could see a fast move lower into 107.75. A break below this level may result in a retest of 107.36 and this is where things get very interesting. A break below this level could mean a very sharp move down to 106.52.

 

 

 

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 1398 (+11 or +0.78%)

Gold continues to consolidate above its breakout. Will this market make a move this week?

For a continued move higher we must now see this market close above 1402. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 1416; and if momentum remains very strong, we could see another retest of 1433. A strong close above this level however could see Gold rally to 1450.

If Gold cannot close above 1402, we will look for a move back down into 1393. A strong break and close below this level however could send this market lower into 1374, and if momentum is strong to the downside we cannot rule out a move lower into 1365.

 

 

 

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The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, holding or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View Investments accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.

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