17.03.06 - WMB_w

Market Brief – Monday 6th March 2017

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX – 5741 ( +10 or +0.17% )

The ASX spent the majority of last week in a sideways range. With the RBA due to meet on Tuesday the market will look for hints on the future direction of rates.

VOLATILITY ALERT: Retail Sales on Monday, Interest Rate Announcement on Tuesday.

For a continued move higher we would like to see the ASX hold above 5705. Should this occur we will look for a move back up into 5746, and break of this level could see a quick retest of 5777. A strong break and close of 5777 may result in a retest of 5823, and if momentum is very strong this week we will could see a strong rally into 5875.

If the ASX cannot hold above 5705, we are likely to see a quick move down to 5690. A strong break and close below this level could see the ASX test 5606 and if momentum is strong we could easily see further losses down to 5589 this week.

 

EUROPE

DAX – 12009 ( +175 or +1.48% )

Once again the DAX has turned at our level and this week we find ourselves coming into the big all-time high. We will be discussing this market in more detail as to where it is likely headed in the MEMBER PORTAL this week.

VOLATILITY ALERT: German Factory Orders on Tuesday, ECB Interest Rate Announcement followed by Press Conference on Thursday.

We will be covering the Interest Rate Announcement LIVE on Thursday in Live TV.

For a continued move to the upside we must see the DAX break back above 12054. Should we see a strong break above this level, we will look for a move to 12198, and if momentum is strong we could see a push to 12381.

If the DAX fails to break above 12054, we will look for a move back down to 11871. A strong break below this level is likely to see a push further down into the 11788 – 11754 area; and if momentum is very strong to the downside this week a move to 11591 cannot be ruled out.

 

US

SP500 – 2381 ( +15 or +0.63% )

Last Wednesday the S&P tapped 2400 before we saw sell programs begin. Our level of 2386 is the short-term line in the sand this week. Above this we will look for moves higher, below, lower.

VOLATILITY ALERT: Monthly Factory Orders on Monday, Trade Balance on Tuesday, NFP on Friday.

We will be covering the NFP Announcement LIVE on Friday in Live TV.

For a move higher we would like to see a the S&P break above above our key 2386 level. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 2400, and if momentum is very strong our next level higher comes in at 2417.

If we cannot hold above 2386, we will look for a move back down to the very important 2350 level. A strong break below this level may see this market test 2334.

 

FOREX

AUD/USD – 0.7594 ( -73 or -0.95% )

The Aussie dollar has finally broken out of the tight 3 week consolidation. We spoke about this for many weeks and with members last week. We will discuss this in more detail again this week in the MEMBER PORTAL.

VOLATILITY ALERT: Retail Sales on Monday, Interest Rate Announcement on Tuesday.

For a move higher we would like to see this market hold above 0.7561. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 0.7616. If momentum is strong, a break above this level is likely to see a full fade of Thursday’s down day back up into 0.7675.

On the downside, a failure to hold above 0.7561 could see the AUD head sharply lower into 0.7487 before a pause. But if momentum is very strong to downside a break of this level could see this market head to 0.7446.

 

EUR/USD – 1.0619 ( +62 or +0.59% )

As we suspected the EURO was setting up for a move higher at one of our key levels last week; but remains in a tight range overall.

VOLATILITY ALERT: German Factory Orders on Tuesday, ECB Interest Rate Announcement followed by Press Conference on Thursday.

We will be covering the Interest Rate Announcement LIVE on Thursday in Live TV.

For a sustained move higher we would like to see this market break and close above 1.0631. If we can hold above this level we will look for a move back into 1.0738, and should momentum remain strong we will be watching the key area between 1.0977 – 1.1000.

If we cannot close above 1.0631, we are likely to see a retest of 1.0525. A strong break below that could see 1.0462 very quickly, and if momentum is strong we cannot rule out a move to 1.0424.

 

GBP/USD – 1.2291 ( -165 or -1.32% )

Last week we alerted to a breakout in Cable and we saw this, with some strong intraday action to the downside. This market is now setting up for a very large move, which we will be discussing in the MEMBER PORTAL this week.

VOLATILITY ALERT: Annual Budget on Wednesday, Manufacturing Production and Trade Balance on Friday.

For a move to the upside we would like to this market break above 1.2297. A strong break and close above this level should see a retest of 1.2384. Should we break this level we could see 1.2480 quickly, and if momentum remains strong a move to 1.2622 is possible.

Further breaks to the downside this week may result in retests of 1.2100. A break of this level may result if a very swift and sharp move lower into 1.2000.

 

USD/JPY – 114.01 ( +183 or +1.63% )

The $/YEN has also double bottom and now the question remains: Will we go higher, or back down again? We will be discussing this market in the LIVE CHAT ROOM.

VOLATILITY ALERT: Quarterly GDP on Wednesday.

For a continued move to the upside we must first see this market hold above 113.86. Should this occur we will look for a retest of retest 114.52. A break above this level may see the $/YEN move higher into 115.54, and if momentum is very strong we will look for a move to 116.08.

If we cannot hold above 113.86 we will look for a move back down into 112.39. A break below this level is likely to result in a retest of 111.73; and as we mentioned last week: Should we break below 111.73 WATCH OUT- the move that follows may be very sharp into 111.09 and 109.94.

 

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 1234 ( -22 or -1.75% )

GOLD is bouncing in and out of levels and has found some key support as of last Friday.

For a continued move higher we want to see this market hold above 1222. Should this occur we will look for a move higher back up to 1247. A break of this level could see GOLD continue to rally higher into 1257.

If Gold cannot hold above 1222, we will look for a move lower into the very important 1218 level. Should we break below this level, we are likely to see GOLD trade lower into 1206.

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The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, holding or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View Investments accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.

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