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Market Brief – Monday 4th March 2019

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX – 6227 (+49 or +0.79%)

With the 2018 highs in sight, can the ASX continue to rally higher this week?

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Mon 11:30 – Building Approvals
Tue 11:30 – Current Account
Tue 14:30 – RBA Interest Rate Announcement
Wed 09:10 – RBA Governor Lowe Speaks
Wed 11:30 – GDP (quarterly)
Thu 11:30 – Retail Sales, Trade Balance

For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX close above 6276. Should this occur we will look for a move into 6345, and if momentum to the upside is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 6440.

If the ASX cannot close above 6276, we will look for a move back down to 6206 before a pause. A strong break and close below this level however could see the ASX retest 6140, and if downside momentum is very strong we could see a move down to 6070.

EUROPE

DAX – 11634 (+172 or +1.5%)

The DAX once again broke through key technical resistance last week and as a result saw a significant move to the upside. We will be discussing this in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Thu 23:45 – ECB Interest Rate Announcement – LIVE TV
Fri 00:30 – ECB Press Conference

For a continued move to the upside we must see the DAX close strongly above the 11755 – 11790 area. Should this occur, we will look for a retest 11875. If momentum is very strong, a break and close above this level could see another push higher into 12054.

If the DAX fails to close above 11755, we will look for a move back down to 11362 before a potential pause. If this market continues to sell-off,  a very strong move down into 11050 cannot be ruled out.

 

US

SP500 – 2805 (+11 or +0.39%)

The S&P is still testing this big area at 2808. Can we finally break through here this week?

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Sat 00:30 – Non-Farm Employment Numbers
Sat 14:00 – FED Chair Powell Speaks

For a move higher we would like to see the S&P hold above 2760. Should this occur we will look for a move into 2808 before a pause. A strong break below this level however see a bigger move into 2838, and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move into 2870.

If we cannot hold above 2760, we could see this market continue to sell-off into 2736 before another pause. A break of this level however may result in quick move down to 2704; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see a move down into 2680 and 2660.

 

FOREX

AUD/USD – 0.7079 (-49 or -0.69%)

With the Aussie Dollar closing lower last week will there be a surprise announcement by the RBA this week? We will be discussing this market in the MEMBER PORTAL as it happens.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Mon 11:30 – Building Approvals
Tue 11:30 – Current Account
Tue 14:30 – RBA Interest Rate Announcement
Wed 09:10 – RBA Governor Lowe Speaks
Wed 11:30 – GDP (quarterly)
Thu 11:30 – Retail Sales, Trade Balance

For a move higher, we would first like to see the AUD close above 0.7113. Should this occur we will look for a move into 0.7197, and if upside momentum remains strong we will look for 0.7229 – 0.7236 before a pause.

If the AUD cannot close above 0.7113, we will look for a move lower into 0.7014. A break and close below this level however could see a sharp decline into 0.6997. Any further breaks to the downside could then see the AUD quickly trade at 0.6958 and 0.6934; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we cannot rule out a move into 0.6830.

 

EUR/USD – 1.1362 (+30 or +0.26%)

The Euro continues to remain in a sideways range and this market should now be watched closely for a strong breakout.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Thu 23:45 – ECB Interest Rate Announcement – LIVE TV
Fri 00:30 – ECB Press Conference

For a move higher we would like to see the EURO hold above 1.1335 early in the week. Should this occur we could see a strong move into 1.1453 and any breaks above this level may mean a quick move into 1.1496 before a pause. A strong close above this level however could see the EURO rally strong into 1.1613 by the week’s end.

If the EURO cannot hold above 1.1335, we could see a fast move down into 1.1249 before a pause. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 1.1201, however any weakness below this level could see a sharp drop into 1.1117 before the week’s end.

 

GBP/USD – 1.3208 (+153 or +1.17%)

Like last week, buyers continue to push this market higher but once again we come into strong resistance.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 20:30 – Services PMI
Wed 02:35 – BoE Governor Carney Speaks

For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable hold above 1.3161 this week. Should this occur we will look for a move to 1.3277; and if momentum is very strong we could see a re-test of last week’s highs into 1.3386.

On the downside, if we cannot hold above 1.3161 we will look for a move back down to 1.3035. A break below this level however could see this market retest 1.2868; and if momentum to the downside is strong we cannot rule out a bigger move to the key 1.2720 level and 1.2622.

 

USD/JPY – 111.92  (+127 or +1.15%)

The breakout in the YEN is underway as we continue to fade January’s move lower. We will be discussing this in more detail in the MEMBER PORTAL.

For a move to the upside we must now see this market hold above 111.73. Should this occur we could see $/YEN rally into 112.68 and 113.29 by the end of this week.

If we cannot hold above 111.73, we will look for another quick retest of 111.09.. A break below this level however may result in a fast move down to 109.94

 

 

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 1293 (-34 or -2.56%)

Last week saw momentum on the downside really pick up in GOLD, with sellers taking control of this market on Friday.

For a continued move higher we must now see this market close and hold above 1294. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 1303. A strong close above this level could see further upside into 1313; and if momentum remains very strong, we could see a big push into 1322 and 1333.

If Gold cannot hold above 1294, we will look for a move back down into 1285. A strong break and close below this level however takes us down into the key 1276 – 1278 area. Should this level break, we could see a strong move down to 1260.

 

 

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