Trade View Investments Weekly Market Brief 3 September 2018

Market Brief – Monday 3rd September 2018

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX – 6348 ( +98 or +1.57% )

The ASX continues to test the upper end of its current range with a second retest of last month’s high. With a busy week scheduled we will be discussing this market extensively in the MEMBER PORTAL this week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 11:30 – Retail Sales (monthly)
Mon 11:30 – Company Operating Profits (quarterly)
Tue 11:30 – Current Account
Tue 14:30 – RBA Interest Rate Announcement
Wed 11:30 – GDP (quarterly)
Thu 11:30 – Trade Balance

For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX hold above 6345 followed by a retest of 6374. Should this occur we will look for a move into 6440, and if momentum to the upside is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 6520.

If the ASX cannot close above 6345, we will look for a move back down to 6276 and 6206 before a pause. A strong break and close below this level however could see the ASX retest 6140, and if downside momentum is very strong we could see a move down to 6085.

 

EUROPE

DAX – 12346 ( -54 or -0.44% )

The DAX has once again struggled to break through 12566 and is now at an important area.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 03:15 – German Buba President Weidmann Speaks

For a continued move to the upside we must now see the DAX close above 12384 followed by a move into 12566. A break of this level could then result into a quick move into 12640; followed by continuation into 12714. If momentum to the upside is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 12830.

If the DAX fails to close above 12384, we expect to see a move back down into 12198 before a pause. A break below this level however means we may see more selling into 12115; and if momentum is very strong to the downside we may see a sharp move into 12044.

 

US

SP500 – 2906 ( +31 or +1.08% )

The S&P once again posted all time highs and we wait to see if this market can continue with new highs this week. We will be discussing this in more detail in the LIVE CHAT ROOM.

NOTE: Monday is a public holiday in the US (Labour Day)

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 00:00 – ISM Manufacturing PMI
Wed 00:00 – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Fri 22:30 – Non-Farm Payrolls – LIVE TV

For a move higher we would like to see the S&P hold above 2902. Should this occur we expect a quick retest of 2908; and a break above this level could set the stage for a bigger move into 2922 and 2930. If momentum to the upside is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 2957

If we cannot hold above 2902 , we will look for a move back down to 2970. A break below this level may result in another quick move down into 2840; and if momentum to the downside is very strong we cannot rule out a move into 2808.

 

FOREX

AUD/USD – 0.7193 ( -131 or -1.79% )

The Aussie Dollar continues to remain bearish and this is now a very important week for this market.  We will be discussing this in more detail in the LIVE CHAT ROOM.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 11:30 – Retail Sales (monthly)
Mon 11:30 – Company Operating Profits (quarterly)
Tue 11:30 – Current Account
Tue 14:30 – RBA Interest Rate Announcement
Wed 11:30 – GDP (quarterly)
Thu 11:30 – Trade Balance

For a move higher we would like to see the AUD break above 0.7229, followed by a break and close above 0.7282. A strong break and close above this level could see a quick move to 0.7364 before a pause; and if momentum remains strong we will look for a move back up into 0.7447.

If we cannot hold above 0.7229, we will look for a move back down to 0.7169. A strong break below this level may result in a move back down into 0.7112 before another potential pause. Any subsequent breaks of this level however may result in a very fast move down to 0.7070.

 

EUR/USD – 1.1606 ( -15 or -0.13% )

The Euro rallied early in the week but failed to close the week higher following a sell-off on Friday.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 03:15 – German Buba President Weidmann Speaks

For a sustained move higher we would like to see the EURO close and hold above 1.1613 this week. Should this occur we could see a strong move into 1.1738 before another pause. A strong break above 1.1738 could result in a fast move to 1.1822.

If the EURO cannot close above 1.1613, we could see a fast move down into 1.1496. A break below this could be followed by another quick move into 1.1453; and should momentum remain strong we cannot rule out a move to 1.1347.

 

GBP/USD – 1.2956 ( +108 or +0.84% )

The Pound is now at key resistance and with Brexit news ramping up this market is one to watch closely as volatility ramps up.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 18:30 – Manufacturing PMI
Tue 18:30 – Construction PMI
Wed 18:30 – GDP (quarterly)

For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable remain above 1.2868, followed by a retest of 1.3035. Should this occur we will look for a move to 1.3111; and if momentum is very strong we could see a move into 1.3191 by the week’s end.

On the downside, should we break and close strongly below 1.2868, there is every chance we see a move lower into 1.2720. Should this level break however we could see a fast move down into 1.2622; and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 1.2510.

 

USD/JPY – 111.10 ( -16 or -0.14% )

The $/YEN has remain basically sideways since last week and as such our levels remain unchanged.

For a move to the upside we must now see this market hold above 111.09. A strong break and close above this level could then see the $/YEN rally into 111.73, and if momentum is extremely strong to the upside 112.68 cannot be ruled out.

If we cannot hold above 111.09, we will look for a quick retest of 109.94. A break below this level however may result in a fast move down to 109.21, and if the downside remains strong we could see a strong sell-off into 108.31.

 

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 1201 ( -5 or -0.41% )

GOLD is now in a battle between buyers and sellers with both sides fighting for a directional change.

For a move higher we would like to see this market close above 1206 on its way to 1222. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 1238. A close above this level may likely see a further move to the upside into 1247 before a pause. Should momentum remain very strong, we could see a fast move into 1260.

If Gold cannot close above 1206, we could see another quick decline into 1187. Any subsequent breaks of this level may result in further downside into 1180, and if momentum to the downside remains very strong we cannot rule out a move into 1170.

 

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