Trade View Weekly Market Brief 3rd December 2018

Market Brief – Monday 3rd December 2018

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX – 5686 ( +14 or +0.25% )

The ASX is once again testing a key area and we will be discussing this week whether this market can bounce higher or will need to break lower first in the LIVE CHAT ROOM.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 11:30 – Building Approvals (monthly)
Tue 11:30 – Current Account
Tue 14:30 – RBA Interest Announcement
Wed 11:30 – GDP (quarterly)
Thu 11:30 – Retail Sales (monthly)
Thu 11:30 – Trade Balance

For a continued move higher we would like to see the ASX close above 5746. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 5777, and a strong close above this could result in a quick move to 5823. If momentum is strong we will then look for a rally into 5875 and 5921.

If the ASX cannot close and hold above 5746, we are likely to see a quick move down into 5648. A close below this level may result in more selling into 5606 and if momentum is very strong a move down into 5582 and 5521 cannot be ruled out.

 

EUROPE

DAX – 11317 ( +141 or +1.26% )

The DAX is holding on and managing to post an unconvincing close higher last week. Can it follow through this week?

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 19:30 – ECB President Draghi Speaks

For a continued move to the upside we must see the DAX close strongly above 11362. Should this occur we will look for a move into the 11566 before a pause. A break of this level however could result in a very strong move into 11755 – 11790 area; with a possibility of a quick move higher into 11875.

If the DAX fails to close above 11362, we will look for a quick move down to 11050. A break and close below this level could result in a very sharp move down into 10863.

 

US

SP500 – 2763 ( +134 or +5.1% )

Last week we stated all eyes were on the S&P and the situation has not changed this week heading into the last NFP for the year. We will be discussing this market in more detail in the LIVE CHAT ROOM.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 02:00 – ISM Manufacturing PMI
Thu 00:15 – Fed Chair Powell Testifies
Thu 02:00 – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Fri 22:45 – Fed Chair Powell Testifies
Sat 00:30 – Non-Farm Unemployment – LIVE TV
Sat 02:00 – Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

For a move higher we would like to see the S&P hold above 2760. Should this occur we could see another retest of 2785, and if momentum remains strong to the upside we cannot rule out a moves to 2808 and 2838.

If we cannot hold above 2760, we could see this market continue to sell-off into 2736 before another pause. A break of this level however may result in quick move down to 2704; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see a move down into 2680 and 2660.

 

FOREX

AUD/USD – 0.7313 ( +85 or +1.18% )

The Aussie dollar is flirting with a key double top as buyers continue to raise prices. This is a big week set for the Aussie Dollar and we will be discussing this in more detail in the the MEMBER PORTAL.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 11:30 – Building Approvals (monthly)
Tue 11:30 – Current Account
Tue 14:30 – RBA Interest Announcement
Wed 11:30 – GDP (quarterly)
Thu 11:30 – Retail Sales (monthly)
Thu 11:30 – Trade Balance

For a move higher we would like to see the AUD hold above 0.7282, followed by a retest and close above 0.7364. A strong break and close above this level could see a quick move to 0.7447 before a pause; and if momentum remains very strong we will look for a big move into 0.7489.

If we cannot close above 0.7282, we will look for a move back down to 0.7229. A strong break below this level may result in a move down into 0.7169 before another potential pause. Any subsequent breaks of this level however may result in a very fast move down to 0.7112.

 

EUR/USD – 1.1319 ( -13 or -0.11% )

This Euro has remain unchanged last week and thus our levels and commentary remain the same.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 19:30 – ECB President Draghi Speaks

For a sustained move higher we would like to see the EURO close and hold above 1.1335 early in the week. Should this occur we could see a strong move into 1.1453 and any breaks above this level may mean a quick move into 1.1496 before a pause. A strong close above this level however could see the EURO rally strong into 1.1613 by the week’s end.

If the EURO cannot close above 1.1335, we could see a fast move down into 1.1249 before a pause. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 1.1201, however any weakness below this level could see a sharp drop into 1.1117 before the week’s end.

 

GBP/USD – 1.2753 ( -51 or -0.4% )

The Pound is now in danger of much lower prices if buyers cannot hold this market here. We will be discussing this in detail in the MEMBER PORTAL this week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 20:30 – Manufacturing PMI
Tue 20:15 – BoE Governor Carney Speaks
Tue 20:30 – Construction PMI
Wed 20:30 – Services PMI

For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable close above 1.2868, followed by a retest of 1.3035 and 1.3161 before a pause. Should this occur we will look for a move to 1.3191 and 1.3277; and if momentum is very strong we could see a re-test of last week’s highs into 1.3386.

On the downside, should we fail to close above 1.2868, we could see this market retest the key 1.2720 level. A strong break below this level however sets this market up for a bigger move down into 1.2622; and if downside momentum remains strong we could see a quick drop into 1.2480.

 

USD/JPY – 113.52 ( +61 or +0.54% )

The $/YEN continues to grind higher and this market should now be watched closely for any signs of weakness; as we gear up for a BIG move.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Fri 11:00 – Average Cash Earnings

For a move to the upside we must now see this market hold above 112.68. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 113.87 before another pause; with the potential for a quick move into 114.08.

If we cannot hold above 112.68, we are likely to see a move down into 111.73. A strong break and close below this level could result in a move back down to 111.09, and if momentum to the downside is very strong we may see a very sharp move down into 110.45.

 

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 1222 ( +0 or +0.00% )

GOLD continues to sit at our key level of 1222. If this market cannot get going soon we could see a very strong move very soon…

For a move higher we must now see this market close above 1222. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 1238. A close above this level may likely see a further move to the upside into 1247 before a pause. Should momentum remain very strong, we could see a fast move into 1260.

If Gold cannot close above 1222, we will look for a move back down into 1206. Any subsequent breaks of this level however may result in a bigger move down into 1187, and if momentum to the downside remains very strong we cannot rule out a sharp move into 1170.

 

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