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Market Brief – Monday 2nd September 2019

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX – 6598 (+156 or +2.42%)

The ASX managed to recover last week having based at a very key level. We will be discussing this again in the MEMBER PORTAL.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Mon 11:30 – Company Operating Profits (quarterly)
Tue 11:30 – Retail Sales (monthly)
Tue 14:30 – RBA Interest Rate Announcement, Statement
Wed 11:30 – GDP (quarterly)
Thu 11:30 – Trade Balance

For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX hold above 6544. Should this occur, we will look for a test of 6635. If momentum to the upside continues we could see a retest of 6682, and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out rule out a move to 6804.

If the ASX cannot hold above 6544, we will look for a move back down to 6435. A strong break and close below this level however could see the ASX retest 6350 before a pause; and if downside momentum is very strong, we could see a move down to 6276.

 

EUROPE

DAX – 11959 (+422 or +3.66%)

The DAX posted a very strong week on the back of a weakening Euro. Can this market continue to rally this week?

For a continued move to the upside we must see the DAX close above 12198. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 12384 before a pause. If momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a blow off move to 12566 and 12750.

If the DAX fails to close above 12198, we will look for a move back down to 11875. Any break below this level however could see the DAX sell-off sharply into 11755 this week; and if downside momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move down to 11519.

 

US

SP500 – 2923 (+71 or +2.49%)

Following China’s added tariffs on Friday, this week we look to what impact Trump’s added tariffs will have. We will be discussing this market in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.

NOTE: Monday is a public holiday in the US (Labour Day)

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Wed 00:00 – ISM Manufacturing PMI
Fri 00:00 – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Fri 22:30 – Non-Farm Unemployment Change – LIVE TV
Sat 02:30 – FED Chair Powell Speaks

For a move higher we would like to see the S&P close above 2960. Should this occur, we will look for a move to 2985. A strong break above this level however sets the stage for a move higher into 3003.

If we cannot close above 2960, we could see this market retest 2922. If momentum to the downside remains strong we may see sharp moves down into 2902 and 2870, and if the sellers continue their aggressive stance 2812 cannot be ruled out this week.

 

 

FOREX

AUD/USD – 0.6736 (-13 or -0.19%)

The Aussie Dollar has again remained flat as we go into a very important week. We will be discussing the significance of this exclusively in the LIVE CHAT ROOM.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Mon 11:30 – Company Operating Profits (quarterly)
Tue 11:30 – Retail Sales (monthly)
Tue 14:30 – RBA Interest Rate Announcement, Statement
Wed 11:30 – GDP (quarterly)
Thu 11:30 – Trade Balance

For a move higher, we would first like to see the AUD close above 0.6762. Should this occur, we will look for a retest of of 0.6875, and if upside momentum remains very strong, we may see a push higher into 0.6934 before a pause.

If the AUD cannot close above 0.6762, we will look for a retest of 0.6706. A break and close below this level sets the stage for a larger move down to 0.6598; and if momentum to the downside is very strong, 0.6457 cannot be ruled out.

 

 

EUR/USD – 1.0990 (-152 or -1.36%)

The Euro broke through the all-important 1.1000 level. We will be discussing this decline in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.

For a move higher we would like to see the EURO hold above 1.0977; followed by a break back above 1.1033. Should this occur, we could then see a move to 1.1197 before a pause. If momentum is very strong, a larger move to 1.1249 cannot be ruled out.

If the EURO cannot hold above 1.0977, we could see a bigger move down into 1.0902 before a pause. If this market continues to sell-off, we could see a move down into 1.0814 before the week’s end.

 

 

GBP/USD – 1.2162 (-121 or -0.99%)

The Pound was unable to post bigger gains last week with more uncertainty likely to come.We will be discussing the significance of this exclusively in the MEMBER PORTAL.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Mon 18:30 – Manufacturing PMI
Wed 18:30 – Services PMI

For a continued move to the upside, we need to see Cable close above 1.2195 followed by a retest of 1.2297. Should this occur we will love for a move back up into 1.2389, and if momentum is very strong we could see a push higher into 1.2480

If the Pound cannot close above 1.2195, we are likely to see a quick move down into 1.2000. A break below this level could see a fast move down to 1.1896, and if momentum is strong to the downside we could see a fast move down into 1.1800.

 

 

USD/JPY – 106.25 (+85 or +0.81%)

The $/YEN is also at an interesting area with a real battle between bulls and bears at the moment..

For a move to the upside we must now see this market hold above 105.50, on its way to retesting 106.52 before a pause. A strong break and close above this level could then see the $/YEN rally into 107.25, and if momentum is very strong we could see moves to 107.75 and 108.31.

If we cannot hold above 105.50, we could see a fast move lower into 104.97. A break below this level may result in a very sharp move down to 103.99. Any further breaks to the downside could see the $/YEN end up at 103.21by the week’s end.

 

 

 

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 1520 (-6 or -0.39%)

Gold has put in another short-term high having failed to hold above 1552. We will be discussing the significance of this exclusively in the LIVE CHAT ROOM.

For a continued move higher we must now see this market close above 1526. Should this occur, we will look for a move to 1540 and 1552; and if momentum remains very strong, we cannot rule out moves to 1570 and 1605.

If Gold cannot close above 1526, we will look for a move back down into 1505. A strong break and close below this level could send this market lower into 1480, and if momentum is strong to the downside we cannot rule out a move lower into 1470.

 

 

 

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The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, holding or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View Investments accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.

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