Trade View Market Brief - 2nd October 2017

Market Brief – Monday 2nd October 2017

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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INDICES

ASX – 5699 ( +5 or +0.09% )

The ASX managed to close the week just higher in what was a flat week. Our levels from last week remain unchanged.

NOTE: Monday is a public holiday in NSW, SA & ACT (Labour Day).

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – Building Approvals (monthly)
Tue 14:30 – RBA Interest Rate Announcement – LIVE TV
Tue 14:30 – RBA Statement
Thu 11:30 – Retail Sales
Thu 11:30 – Trade Balance

For a continued move higher we would like to see the ASX close above 5746. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 5777, and a strong close above this could result in a quick move to 5823. If momentum is strong we will then look for a rally into 5875 and 5921.

If the ASX cannot close and hold above 5746, we are likely to see a quick move down into 5671 and 5648. A close below this level may result in more selling into 5606 and if momentum is very strong a move down into 5582 and 5521 cannot be ruled out.

 

EUROPE

DAX – 12854 ( +245 or +1.94% )

The DAX rallied strongly last week following Merkel’s victory. Will we see a strong continuation this week or a reversal? 

NOTE: Tuesday is a public holiday in Germany (German Unity Day)

For a continued move to the upside we must now see the DAX close and hold above 12882. Should this occur we will look for a quick move to 12921, however a strong break of this level could see the DAX rally quickly into 13050 before a pause. If momentum continues to be very strong this week we will look for a move to 13205.

If the DAX fails to close above 12882, we will look for a move back down to 12714. A close below this level however could see the DAX lower into 12566; and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move to to the downside 12384.

 

US

SP500 – 2519 ( +18 or +0.72% )

The S&P is once again at all time highs. This market just does not want to correct! We will be discussing and trading this market exclusively this week in the LIVE CHAT ROOM.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 01:00 – ISM Manufacturing PMI
Thu 01:00 – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Thu 06:15 – Janet Yellen Speaks
Fri 01:00 – Factory Orders (monthly)
Fri 23:30 – Non-Farm Payrolls – LIVE TV

For a move higher we would like to see the S&P hold above 2512. Should this occur we will look for a move higher into 2524. A close above this level could see a spike higher into 2540, and if the rally continues we could see 2550 by the week’s end!

If we cannot hold above 2512, we will look for a move back down to 2500. A break below this level could see the S&P head lower into 2490, and a strong break and close below this level may see this market trade quick back down to 2477.

 

FOREX

AUD/USD – 0.7834 ( -127 or -1.6% )

The Aussie Dollar found support and closed right at our key level of 0.7833 on Friday. We are watching this level closely as this market could bounce from here. We will be discussing this market in more detail in the MEMBER PORTAL.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – Building Approvals (monthly)
Tue 14:30 – RBA Interest Rate Announcement – LIVE TV
Tue 14:30 – RBA Statement
Thu 11:30 – Retail Sales
Thu 11:30 – Trade Balance

For a move higher we must now see this market hold above 0.7833. Should this occur we will look for a move to 0.7903. A strong break and close above this level could set the AUD for a retest of the important 0.8000 level and a retest of 0.8034.

If we cannot hold above 0.7833, we will look for a move lower into 0.7779. A close below this level could then see a move into 0.7723, and if momentum remains strong 0.7677 is the next level lower before we will look for a pause.

 

EUR/USD – 1.1810 ( -136 or -1.14% )

The EURO has finally broken down through its sideways range and like the AUD, we are watching a key level at 1.1834. We will be discussing this market in detail in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.

For a sustained move higher we would like to see the EURO break and close above 1.1834. Should this occur we will look for the EURO to rally into 1.1937. A strong close above this level may result in a retest of the big 1.2000 handle before another pause. A break through this level could then see a spike high into 1.2042 and if momentum remains very strong 1.2167 cannot be ruled out.

If the EURO cannot hold above 1.1834, we will look for a move back down into 1.1738. A strong break below this level could see sharp moves into 1.1678 and 1.1613; and if downside momentum is very strong we could quickly see a move lower into 1.1496.

 

GBP/USD – 1.3396 ( -99 or -0.73% )

The Pound spent most of last week drifting lower; and this week kicks off with a speech by Theresa May on Sunday evening. This event is noteworthy and could trigger some gaps early Monday morning.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Sun 20:00 – Prime Minister May speaks on Brexit
Mon 19:30 – Manufacturing PMI
Tue 19:30 – Construction PMI
Wed 19:30 – Services PMI

For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable close above 1.3436 and 1.3534, on its way to retesting 1.3743. A break of this level could see the Pound quickly reach 1.3875 before a pause; and if momentum is very strong a move to 1.4075 cannot be ruled out.

If we fail to close above 1.3534, we may see this market trade back into 1.3277 before a pause. A strong break below this level could see a move lower into 1.3156 and 1.3085. Should the market break and close through 1.3085 we may see a quick move into 1.3035; and if momentum is very strong to the downside 1.2868 cannot be ruled out.

 

USD/JPY – 112.48 ( +49 or +0.44% )

The $/YEN edged slightly higher and like other markets is now approaching key resistance.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 10:50 – Tankan Manufacturing Index
Mon 10:50 – Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index

For a move to the upside we must now see this market hold above 111.72. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 112.68. A strong break and close above this level could see the YEN rally strongly into 113.87; and if momentum is very strong we could see a move into 114.31.

If we cannot hold above 111.72, we will look for a retest of 111.09. A strong break and close below this level could result in a move back down to 110.45, and if momentum to the downside is very strong we may see a sharp move down into 109.94.

 

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 1279 ( -18 or -1.39% )

Gold continues to respect our levels very well and has yet again reached another key target in 1276-1278. We will be discussing this market in more detail this week in the MEMBER PORTAL.

For a continued move higher we would like to see this market hold above 1278, followed by a retest of 1294. A strong break above 1294 could see this market head back up to 1303, and if momentum remains strong we could see a move into 1313 before another pause.

If Gold cannot hold above 1278, we will look for a strong move back down into 1263 and 1257. A break and close below this level could then result in a move to 1247 before the week’s end.

 

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