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Market Brief – Monday 29th April 2019

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX – 6389 (+99 or +1.57%)

The ASX has broken out of an important level but can it continue to rally?

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Fri 11:30 – Building Approvals (monthly)

For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX hold above 6350. Should this occur we will look for a test of 6435, and if momentum to the upside is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 6500.

If the ASX cannot hold above 6350, we will look for a move back down to 6276 for strong support. A strong break and close below this level however could see the ASX retest 6180, and if downside momentum is very strong we could see a move down to 6140.

EUROPE

DAX – 12310 (+67 or +0.55%)

The DAX continues to grind higher as we approach yet another important level. We will be discussing this market in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 18:00 – German Prelim CPI

For a continued move to the upside we must see the DAX hold above 12198. Should this occur we will look for a move into 12384 before a pause. If momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a blow off move to 12566.

If the DAX fails to close above 12198, we will look for a move back down to 12044. Any break below this level however could see the DAX sell-off sharply into 11875 this week.

 

US

SP500 – 2939 (+31 or +1.07%)

The world is watching as we are now just a few points shy off the all-time high in the S&P. We will be discussing what this week should look like in the MEMBER PORTAL.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 22:30 – Personal Spending (monthly)
Tue 23:45  Chicago PMI
Wed 00:00 – CB COnsumer Confidence
Thu 00:00 – ISM Manufacturing PMI
Thu 04:00 – FOMC Interest Rate Announcement
Thu 04:30 – FOMC Press Conference
Fri 22:30 – Non-Farm Payrolls – LIVE TV
Sat 00:00 – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

For a move higher we would like to see the S&P hold above 2922 . Should this occur we will look for a move into 2941 before a pause. A strong break above this level however sets the stage for a move higher into 2950 – 2960.

If we cannot hold above 2922, we could see this market sell-off into 2902 and then 2870 before another pause. A break of this level however may result in quick move down to 2838; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see a move down into 2808.

 

FOREX

AUD/USD – 0.7038 (-110 or -1.54%)

Last week we stated the Aussie dollar was in a holding pattern and this remains true; as seen by more consolidative behaviour.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Fri 11:30 – Building Approvals (monthly)

For a move higher, we would first like to see the AUD close above 0.7113. Should this occur we will look for a move into 0.7197, and if upside momentum remains strong we will look for 0.7229 – 0.7236 before a pause.

If the AUD cannot close above 0.7113, we will look for a move lower into 0.7014. A break and close below this level however could see a sharp decline into 0.6997. Any further breaks to the downside could then see the AUD quickly trade at 0.6958 and 0.6934; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we cannot rule out a move into 0.6830.

 

EUR/USD – 1.1144 (-96 or -0.85%)

The Euro has finally broken below the important 1.1200 level.We will  be covering this in detail in the MEMBER PORTAL.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 19:00 – Euro-area Prelim CPI
Fri 19:00 – CPI Flash Estimate (annual)

For a move higher we would like to see the EURO close above 1.1197 early in the week. Should this occur we could see a retest into 1.1249 and any breaks above this level may mean a quick move into 1.1335 before a further pause.

If the EURO cannot close above 1.1197, we could see another retest down into 1.1117 before another pause. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 1.1033 before the week’s end.

 

GBP/USD – 1.2914 (-74 or -0.57%)

Last week we stated things in the UK are  getting very quiet and should be watched closely. We now have our breakout.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 18:10 – BoE Governor Carney Speaks
Wed 18:30 – Manufacturing PMI
Thu 21:00 – BoE Interest Rate Announcement
Fri 18:30 – Services PMI

For a continued move to the upside, we must now see Cable close above 1.3035. Should this occur we will look for follow-through to 1.3161 this week. If momentum to the upside is very strong, we cannot rule out moves into 1.3277 and 1.3386.

On the downside, a close below 1.2868 could result in a move to 1.2720. A break below this level however could see this market retest the important 1.2622. level; and if momentum to the downside is strong we cannot rule out a bigger move down to 1.2500.

 

USD/JPY – 111.55 (-36 or -0.32%)

The YEN continues to test an important area and this week our levels remain unchanged, and we expect continued volatility this week.

NOTE: Monday is a public holiday in Japan (Showa Day).

For a move to the upside we must now see this market close above 111.73. Should this occur we could see a strong move into 112.22. A strong break and close above this level could then see the $/YEN rally into 112.68, and if momentum is extremely strong to the upside 113.27 cannot be ruled out.

If we cannot close above 111.73, we will look for another quick retest of 111.09. A break below this level however may result in a fast move down to 110.67, and if the downside remains very strong we cannot rule out a sell-off into 109.94.

 

 

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 1285 (+10 or +0.78%)

Gold has put in a swing bottom, but can it rally from here??

For a continued move higher we must now see this market close and hold above 1278. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 1294. A strong close above this level could see further upside into 1303; and if momentum remains very strong, we could see a big push into 1313.

If Gold cannot close above 1278, we will look for a move back down into 1260. A strong break and close below this level however could see Gold trade quickly into 1247 before a pause.

 

 

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