Trade View Investments Weekly Market Brief 28th May 2018

Market Brief – Monday 28th May 2018

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX – 6001 ( -54 or -0.89% )

The ASX continues to correct and this will be an important week for this market. Will the buyers return?

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 11:30 – Building Approvals (monthly)
Thu 11:30 – Private Capex (quarterly)

For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX close above 6010 followed by a retest of 6070. Should this occur a strong break and close above 6070 may result in continued upside into 6140. A strong break above this level could see a strong move into 6206 by the week’s end.

If the ASX cannot close above 6010, we will look for a move back down to 5985. A strong break and close below this level could see the ASX retest 5921, and if downside momentum is strong we could quickly see a further move all the way back down into 5875.


EUROPE

DAX – 12931 ( -144 or -1.1% )

The DAX has put in a short-term high right near our key 13205 level, and the question this week will be will we see a retest of this?

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 16:00 – German Retail Sales (monthly)
Wed 16:00 – German Prelim CPI (monthly)

For a continued move to the upside we must now see the DAX close above 13050. Should this occur we will look for a strong move into 13205, and if momentum remains strong a push back higher into 13301.

If the DAX fails to close above 13050, we may see a retest back down into the key level of 12921.A close below this level is likely to see a retest of 12714; however if momentum is very strong to the downside we cannot rule out a move to 12566.

 

US

SP500 – 2721 ( +9 or +0.33% )

The S&P continues to remain in a sideways consolidation. Do we break higher or lower from here? We will be discussing the impact of this in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.

NOTE: Monday is a public holiday in the US (Memorial day)

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 22:30 – Prelim GDP (quarterly)
Thu 23:45 – Chicago PMI
Fri 22:30 – Non-Farm Employment – LIVE TV

For a move higher we would like to see the S&P hold above 2736. Should this occur we will look for a retest of the key 2760 level. A strong break and close above this level could see another retest of 2785, and if momentum remains strong to the upside we cannot rule out a move to 2808.

If we cannot hold above 2736, we could see this market continue to sell-off into 2704 before a pause. If momentum to the downside is strong we may see a move lower into 2680; and a close below this level may result in a move down to 2660 and 2638.

 

FOREX

AUD/USD – 0.7546 ( +34 or +0.45% )

The Aussie Dollar is attempting to break higher however continues to consolidate around the key 0.7561 level. We will be discussing this in more detail in the LIVE CHAT ROOM.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 11:30 – Building Approvals (monthly)
Thu 11:30 – Private Capex (quarterly)

For a move higher we must now see this market hold above 0.7489, followed by a close above of the key area between 0.7550 and 0.7561. A break above this level could see this market break higher and retest 0.7617; and if momentum is very strong we may see a quick move into 0.7662.

If we cannot hold above 0.7489, we will look for this market to break lower into 0.7447 before another pause. A strong break and close below this level however could mean this market sells off sharply into 0.7364.

 

EUR/USD – 1.1650 ( -119 or -1.01% )

As the Euro continues to nosedive all eyes will be on this market this week for any sign of a reversal higher now.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 16:00 – German Retail Sales (monthly)
Wed 16:00 – German Prelim CPI (monthly)
Thu 19:00 – CPI Flash Estimate (annual)

For a sustained move higher we would like to see the EURO close above 1.1678, followed by a retest of 1.1738. Should this occur, we will then look for this market to retest 1.1834; and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 1.1927.

If however the EURO cannot hold above 1.1678, we may likely see a move lower into into the 1.1613. A strong break and close below this level however could see the EURO sell-off sharply down into 1.1496.

 

GBP/USD – 1.3297 ( -174 or -1.29% )

Like the EURO Cable was also sold last week and we are now approaching a key level.

NOTE: Monday is a public holiday in the UK (Spring Bank Holiday)

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Fri 18:30 – Manufacturing PMI

For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable hold above 1.3309. Should this occur we will look for the Pound to rally into 1.3534 before a pause; however a strong break of this level could see a retest of 1.3875.

If we cannot hold above 1.3309, we will look for a quick move down into 1.3277. A break of this level however may result in a retest of 1.3035. A break below this level could see this market sell-off quickly into 1.2868, and should the downside momentum continue we cannot rule out a move to 1.2720.

 

USD/JPY – 109.41 ( -133 or -1.2% )

The $/YEN sold off aggressively last week and we are now watching this market for some potential consolidation. We will be discussing this in more detail in the MEMBER PORTAL.  

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 10:00 – BoJ Governor Kuroda speaks

For a move to the upside we must now see this market hold above 109.21. A strong break and close above this level could then see the $/YEN rally into 109.95, and if momentum is very strong we could see moves to 110.31 and 110.78.

If we cannot hold above 109.21, we could see a fast move lower into 108.31. A break below this level may result in a retest of 107.75, and if the downside remains strong we could see a further sell-off into 107.36. A break below this level however could mean a very sharp move down to 106.52.

 

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 1301 ( +8 or +0.62% )

Last week we noted ‘it was now or never for Gold’. Since then Gold has broken out to the upside and the question this week will be: Will GOLD rally higher or consolidate back down into a range?

For a continued move higher we must now see this market hold above 1294. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 1303. A strong close above this level could see further upside into 1313; and if momentum remains very strong, we could see a big push into 1322 and 1333.

If Gold cannot hold above 1294, we will look for a move back down into 1285. A strong break and close below this level however takes us down into the key 1276 – 1278 area which is very important and will be watched closely.

 

 

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The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, holding or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View Investments accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.

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