Trade View Market Brief - 28th August 2017

Market Brief – Monday 28th August 2017

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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INDICES

ASX – 5745 ( +5 or +0.09% )

The ASX continues within its tight range and again we remain on alert for a big breakout. We will be discussing this market exclusively in the LIVE CHAT ROOM.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – Building Approvals
Thu 11:30 – Private Capex (quarterly)

For a continued move higher we would like to see the ASX close above 5746. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 5777, and a strong close above this could result in a quick move to 5823. If momentum is strong we will then look for a rally into 5875 and 5921.

If the ASX cannot close and hold above 5746, we are likely to see a strong move down into 5671 and 5648. A close below this level may result in more selling into 5606 and if momentum is very strong a move down into 5582 and 5521 cannot be ruled out.

 

EUROPE

DAX – 12170 ( -1 or -0.01% )

The DAX has remained unchanged over the last week. The market has barely moved and as such our levels remain unchanged.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed – German Prelim CPI
Thu 16:00 – German Retail Sales

For a continued move to the upside we must now see the DAX hold above 12115. Should this occur we will look for a move back up to 12198. A strong break of this level could see the DAX rally quickly to 12384; and if momentum is very strong we will look for a move to 12566

If the DAX fails to hold above 12115, we will look for a move down to 12044. A close below this level could see a move down into 11875. Below this we have key support between 11755 – 11790. However should these levels break be prepared for a potentially strong move down into 11519.

 

US

SP500 – 2443 ( +16 or +0.66% )

The S&P continues to show strength compared to other markets. We will be discussing this market in more detail in the MEMBER PORTAL.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 22:30 – Prelim GDP (quarterly)
Thu 22:30 – Personal Spending
Thu 22:30 – Chicago PMI
Fri 00:00 – Pending Home Sales
FRI 22:30 – Non-Farm Payrolls – LIVE TV

For a move higher we would like to see the S&P hold above our key level at 2440. Should this occur we anticipate further upside over the coming week. A strong break of 2440 could see retests of 2465 and 2477.

If we cannot hold above 2440, we could see another move down back into 2424 and 2418. A break below this level may see a retest of strong support at 2400. Should we break 2400, we could see the S&P spike down 2392, and a close below this level could see this market trade 2386 by week’s end.

 

FOREX

AUD/USD – 0.7931 ( +3 or +0.04% )

The Australian dollar managed to finish the week only slightly higher and we will be watching this market closely this week with key economic data scheduled to be released.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – Building Approvals
Thu 11:30 – Private Capex (quarterly)

For a move higher we must now see this market hold above 0.7903, followed by a strong break and close above 0.7988. Should this occur we will look for this market to test 0.8034. A strong break and close above 0.8034 could see this market post further gains into 0.8118.

If we cannot hold above 0.7903, we could see the AUD retest 0.7833. Should we break lower however, we will look for a move back into 0.7779 and if downside momentum continues we could see 0.7729 quickly before another pause.

 

EUR/USD – 1.1921 ( +162 or +1.38% )

The EURO rallied very strongly on Friday in anticipating of Draghi’s speech at Jackson Hole. We will be discussing how far this may may move in more detail this week in the LIVE CHAT ROOM.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed – German Prelim CPI
Wed 17:00 – Spanish Flash CPI (annual)
Thu 16:00 – German Retail Sales
Thu 19:00 – CPI Flash Estimate (annual)
Fri 17:15 – Spanish Manufacturing PMI

For a sustained move higher we would like to see the EURO hold above 1.1834. Should this occur we could see a strong move into 1.2042. A break of 1.2042 could see the EURO rally quickly into 1.2167.

If the EURO cannot hold above 1.1834, we will look for a move back down into 1.1738. A strong break of this level could then see a move back down into 1.1678, and if downside momentum is strong we could quickly see a move lower into 1.1613.

 

GBP/USD – 1.2877 ( +6 or +0.05% )

The GBP has taken a breather from the sell-off we have seen in August and like the EURO was strong into Friday’s close.

NOTE: Monday is a bank holiday (Summer Bank holiday)

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Fri 18:30 – Manufacturing PMI

For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable hold above 1.2868 followed by a break above 1.3035. Should this occur we will look for the Pound to rally into 1.3277 before a pause. A break of this level is very likely to see the GBP/USD test 1.3309, and if momentum is very strong we will look for a move to 1.3534.

If we fail to hold above 1.2868, we may see this market trade back into 1.2720 before another pause. If momentum is strong and we break and close below 1.2720, we could see a sharp move lower into 1.2600.

 

USD/JPY – 109.33 ( +14 or +0.13% )

The $/YEN continues to hold around our key level at 109.21. We will be watching the intraday action around this level closely this week.

For a move to the upside we will look for this market hold above 109.21, followed by a strong break above 109.94 before a pause. If momentum remains strong to the upside, we will look for a move to 111.09 before the week’s end.

If we cannot hold above 109.21, the YEN may see further downside into 108.31. A strong break and close below this level could see the YEN trade lower into 107.75; however should this level break this could spell trouble for the YEN with a very fast move down to 105.45.

 

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 1291 ( +7 or +0.55% )

GOLD is now in a very tight range between 1294 – 1276. Will this market break out this week?

For a continued move higher we would like to see this market hold above 1276, followed by a strong break of 1294. Should this occur we could see this market head back up to 1303, and if momentum remains strong we could see a move into 1313 before another pause.

If Gold cannot hold above 1276, we will look for a strong move back down into 1263 and 1257. A break and close below this level could then result in a move to 1247 before the week’s end.

 

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