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Market Brief – Monday 27th May 2019

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX – 6454 (+93 or +1.46%)

The ASX was yet again range bound all of last week and the question now is- can this market continue higher or will we fall back below last week’s range?

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Thu 11:30 – Building Approvals (monthly), Private CapEx (quarterly)

For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX hold above 6435. Should this occur we will look for a test of 6500, and above this 6550. If momentum to the upside is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 6670.

If the ASX cannot hold above 6435, we will look for a move back down to 6350 for strong support. A strong break and close below this level however could see the ASX retest 6276, and if downside momentum is very strong we could see a move down to 6180.

EUROPE

DAX – 12027 (-172 or -1.41%)

The DAX is attempting to base and historically this is another important week for this market heading into the final week of May. We will be discussing this market in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.

NOTE: Thursday is a public holiday in Germany and France (Ascension Day)

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Sun All day – EU Poll Results
Fri 18:00 – German Prelim CPI (monthly)

For a continued move to the upside we must see the DAX close above 12198. Should this occur we will look for a move into 12384 before a pause. If momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a blow off move to 12566 and 12750.

If the DAX fails to close above 12198, we will look for a move back down to 12000. Any break below this level however could see the DAX sell-off sharply into 11875 this week; and if downside momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 11720.

 

US

SP500 – 2829 (-30 or -1.05%)

The S&P has put in an important double bottom and this is one of the key markets to watch this week. We will be discussing this in more detail in the MEMBER PORTAL.

NOTE: Monday is a public holiday in the US (Memorial Day)

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 09:00 – Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Thu 04:00 – FOMC Meeting Minutes
Fri 22:30 – Core Durable Goods Orders (monthly)

For a move higher we would like to see the S&P close above 2838. Should this occur we will look for a move to 2902, and potentially 2922 again before a pause. A strong break above this level however sets the stage for a move higher into 2941 and 2960.

If we cannot close above 2838, we could see this market retest 2812.  A break of this level however may result in quick move down to 2800; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see a very sharp move down into 2785 and 2740.

 

FOREX

AUD/USD – 0.6927 (+60 or +0.87%)

Another important week for the Aussie Dollar as it tries to base and attempt at a move to the upside. We will be discussing this in more detail in the MEMBER PORTAL.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Thu 11:30 – Building Approvals (monthly), Private CapEx (quarterly)

For a move higher, we would first like to see the AUD hold above 0.6873. Should this occur we will look for a move into 0.6934, and if upside momentum remains very strong we cannot rule out a move to 0.7014 before a pause.

If the AUD cannot hold above 0.6873, we will look for a move lower into 0.6825. A break and close below this level however could see a sharp decline into 0.6762.

 

EUR/USD – 1.1157 (+48 or +0.43%)

With EU Poll results due tonight, all eyes will be on whether the Brexit party wins a majority or not.

NOTE: Monday is a public holiday in the UK (Spring Bank holiday)

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Sun All day – EU Poll Results

For a move higher we would like to see the EURO hold above 1.1197 early in the week. Should this occur we could see a retest into 1.1249 and any breaks above this level may mean a quick move into 1.1335 before a further pause.

If the EURO cannot hold above 1.1197, we could see another retest down into 1.1117 before another pause. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 1.1033 before the week’s end.

 

GBP/USD – 1.2711 (-6 or -0.05%)

The Pound is also trying to base with this week again all about the important 1.2720 level.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Sun All day – EU Poll Results
Fri 18:30 – Retail Sales (monthly)

For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable close above 1.2720, followed by a retest of 1.2868 before a pause. Should this occur we will look for a move to 1.3035 and 1.3161; and if momentum is very strong we could see a re-test of 1.3191.

On the downside, should we fail to close above 1.2720, we will be watching the key level at 1.2622 very closely. A strong break below this level however sets this market up for a bigger move down into 1.2480.

 

USD/JPY – 109.29 (-74 or -0.67%)

The YEN was unable to hold above 110.00 and we will be watching this level again this week in the event of a retest.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Wed 10:00 – BoJ Kuroda speaks

For a move to the upside we must now see this market close above 109.94. Should this occur we could see a strong move into 110.67. A strong break and close above this level however could see the $/YEN rally into 111.09 and 111.73, and if momentum is extremely strong to the upside 112.22 cannot be ruled out.

If we cannot close above 109.94, we are likely to see a break of which could see a quick move down to retest 109.20. A break below this level sets this market up for further downside into 108.33; and if the downside remains very strong we cannot rule out a move to 107.73 by the end of the week.

 

 

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 1284 (+7 or +0.55%)

Gold remains in a tight sideways range between two of our key areas..

For a continued move higher we must now see this market hold above 1278. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 1294. A strong close above this level could see further upside into 1303; and if momentum remains very strong, we could see a big push into 1313.

If Gold cannot hold above 1278, we will look for a move back down into 1260. A strong break and close below this level however could see Gold trade quickly into 1247 before a pause.

 

 

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The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, holding or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View Investments accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.

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