17.03.27 - WMB_w

Market Brief – Monday 27th March 2017

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX – 5755 ( -22 or -0.38% )

The ASX has remained virtually FLAT for the entire month of March. Will we see a sustained move going into the last week? We will be talking about this in more detail in the MEMBER PORTAL this week.

For a continued move higher we would like to see the ASX hold above 5746, followed by a strong break and close above 5777. A break of this level could A strong break and close of 5777 may result in a retest of 5823, and if momentum is very strong this week we will could see a strong rally into 5875.

If the ASX cannot hold above 5746, we will look for moves down to 5705 and 5690. A strong break and close below this level could see the ASX test 5606 and if momentum is strong we could easily see further losses down to 5589 this week.

 

EUROPE

DAX – 12074 ( -6 or -0.05% )

The DAX closed the week down 6 points and has been one of the more resilient indices over the past fortnight. Our levels this week remain unchanged however we are anticipating some volatility this week.

VOLATILITY ALERT: German Ifo Business Climate on Monday, German Prelim CPI on Thursday, German Retail Sales and Unemployment on Friday.

For a continued move to the upside we must see the DAX hold above 12054. Should we see a strong break above this level, we will look for another push back up to 12198, and if momentum is strong we may see a strong move into 12381. A strong break above this level means we will be at ALL-TIME HIGH’s (12404)

If the DAX fails to hold above 12054, we will look for a move back down to 11871. A strong break below this level is likely to see a push further down into the 11788 – 11754 area; and if momentum is very strong to the downside this week a move to 11591 cannot be ruled out.

 

US

SP500 – 2347 ( -31 or -1.3% )

The S&P has been holding above our key 2334 level having tested it twice last week and found key support. We will be discussing this market exclusively in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.

VOLATILITY ALERT: Consumer Confidence on Tuesday, Pending Home Sales on Wednesday, Quarterly GDP on Thursday.

For a move higher we must first see the S&P hold above our key level of 2334. Should this hold we will look for retests of 2350 and 2360 early in the week. A strong break and close above 2360 may see a move to 2376, and further breaks to the upside could see a retest of 2386. Should momentum to the upside remain strong, a move back up to 2400 cannot be ruled out.

If we cannot hold above 2334, we could see a fast move back down to 2312. A close below this level could see further downside to 2292, and if momentum to the downside is strong a move to 2270 cannot be ruled out.

 

FOREX

AUD/USD – 0.7622 ( -82 or -1.06% )

The Aussie Dollar has all but faded the strong FOMC move to the upside and is now at one another of our key levels (0.7617).

For a move higher we would like to see this market hold above above 0.7617. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 0.7677. A strong break and close above this key level could see this market rally to 0.7729, and if momentum is strong our next level higher is 0.7833.

On the downside, we are monitoring the 0.7617 level as an area for a pause, however a strong break below will likely result in a move back down to 0.7561; and if momentum remains strong to the downside we could quickly see 0.7489.

 

EUR/USD – 1.0799 ( +62 or +0.58% )

The EURO is at an important double top and has failed to penetrate through our 1.0814 level. We will be discussing this market exclusively in the MEMBER PORTAL this week.

VOLATILITY ALERT: German Ifo Business Climate on Monday, German Prelim CPI on Thursday, Euro Flash CPI, German Retail Sales and Unemployment on Friday.

For a sustained move higher we must now see this market break and close strongly above 1.0814. Should this occur we could see a fast move into 1.0902, and if momentum continues to the upside we will look for a move into 1.0977 – 1.1000.

If we cannot close above 1.0814, we will look for a move back down to 1.0738. If momentum remains strong to the downside a move back down to 1.0631 is the next level we will look for this market to retest.

 

GBP/USD – 1.2477 ( +86 or +0.69% )

The GBP continues to strengthen as we enter the last week of March. Will British PM Theresa May look to invoke Article 50 this week? We will be discussing this in more detail in the MEMBER PORTAL.

VOLATILITY ALERT: BREXIT Article 50 (potentially) to be triggered, Current Account on Friday.

For a move to the upside we would like to this market close above 1.2480. A strong break and close above this level could see a retest of 1.2622. If momentum continues and remains strong to the upside we will look for a move to 1.2720.

If the GBP cannot break and close above 1.2480, we will look for a move back down to 1.2430. A break below this level may see a retest of 1.2297, and should momentum to the downside remain strong we may see a move back down to 1.2240.

 

USD/JPY – 111.27 ( -145 or -1.29% )

For the second straight week the $/YEN was sold off aggressively. Last week we said we could see a fast move down to 111.09, and that’s exactly what we saw. As pointed out in the MEMBER PORTAL on Friday, we are now at a potential turning point in this market.

VOLATILITY ALERT: Retail Sales on Wednesday, Annual Household Spending on Friday.

For a continued move to the upside we must now see this market hold above 111.09. Should this occur we will look for a move back up to 111.73, and a retest of the key level at 112.22. Should we break and close above 112.22 we could see a strong move into 113.87 – 114.08, and if momentum is very strong a move higher into 114.52 cannot be ruled out by week’s end.

If we cannot hold above 111.09, the YEN may see further downside into a key area between 110.10 – 109.94. A strong break and close below 109.94 may result in further downside into 109.21, and if downside momentum is very strong this week 108.31 cannot be ruled out.

 

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 1245 ( +16 or +1.3% )

Like other markets GOLD is also testing another of our key levels at 1247. After touching this level on four days last week GOLD has failed to hold above this level. We will discuss a break (and reversal) this week in the MEMBER PORTAL.

For a continued move higher we want to see this market close strongly above 1247, followed by a retest of 1257. Should this occur we will look for a continued rally into the key 1276 – 1278 area.

If Gold cannot hold above 1247, we will look for a move lower into 1222.  A strong break below this level could then see a retest of the very important 1206 level by week’s end.

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