Trade View Weekly Market Brief 26th November 2018

Market Brief – Monday 26th November 2018

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX – 5672 ( -56 or -0.98% )

The ASX is testing a very key bottoming area. Can the bulls hold it here or are we set for lower prices? We will be discussing this in more detail in the LIVE CHAT ROOM.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 09:15 – RBA Governor Lowe Speaks
Wed 11:30 – Construction Work Done (quarterly)
Thu 11:30 – Private Capex (quarterly)

For a continued move higher we would like to see the ASX close above 5746. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 5777, and a strong close above this could result in a quick move to 5823. If momentum is strong we will then look for a rally into 5875 and 5921.

If the ASX cannot close and hold above 5746, we are likely to see a quick move down into 5648. A close below this level may result in more selling into 5606 and if momentum is very strong a move down into 5582 and 5521 cannot be ruled out.

 

EUROPE

DAX – 11176 ( -197 or -1.73% )

The DAX has now double bottomed but like the ASX – can it hold??? This week is set to be a very big week for Europe’s biggest producer.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon All Day – EU Economic Summit
Mon 20:00 – German Ifo Business Climate
Tue 01:00 – ECB President Draghi Speaks
Thu 19:00 – German Prelim CPI (monthly)
Thu 19:00 – ECB President Draghi Speaks

For a continued move to the upside we must see the DAX close strongly above 11362. Should this occur we will look for a move into the 11566 before a pause. A break of this level however could result in a very strong move into 11755 – 11790 area; with a possibility of a quick move higher into 11875.

If the DAX fails to close above 11362, we will look for a quick move down to 11050. A break and close below this level could result in a very sharp move down into 10863.

 

US

SP500 – 2629 ( -111 or -4.05% )

All eyes are on US Indices this week following two days of weakness last week into Thanksgiving. We will be discussing this market in more detail in the LIVE CHAT ROOM.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 02:00 – CB Consumer Confidence
Thu 00:30 – Prelim GDP (quarterly)
Thu 04:00 – FED Chair Powell Speaks
Fri 00:30 – Personal Spending (monthly)
Fri 06:00 – FOMC Meeting Minutes
Sat 01:45 – Chicago PMI

For a move higher, we would like to see the S&P close above 2660. Should this occur we will look for a retest of the key 2680 level. A strong break and close above this level could see another retest of 2704, and if momentum remains strong to the upside we cannot rule out moves to 2720 and 2736.

If we cannot close above 2660, we could see this market continue to sell-off into 2600 which is a VERY KEY LEVEL! A strong break through this level however could quickly see a move down to 2590 before a pause. If momentum to the downside is strong we may see a move lower into 2562; and a close below this level may result in a very fast move down to 2540.

 

FOREX

AUD/USD – 0.7228 ( -103 or -1.4% )

The Aussie dollar posted its first losing week in 4 weeks and is now consolidating some of its gains over the past month.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 09:15 – RBA Governor Lowe Speaks
Wed 11:30 – Construction Work Done (quarterly)
Thu 11:30 – Private Capex (quarterly)

For a move higher we would like to see the AUD break above 0.7229, followed by a break and close above 0.7282. A strong break and close above this level could see a quick move to 0.7364 before a pause; and if momentum remains strong we will look for a move back up into 0.7447.

If we cannot close strongly above 0.7229, we will look for a move back down to 0.7169. A strong break below this level may result in a move back down into 0.7112 before another potential pause. Any subsequent breaks of this level however may result in a very fast move down to 0.7070.

 

EUR/USD – 1.1332 ( -85 or -0.74% )

This week is also an important week for the Euro as we wait to see what the outcome will be following the weekend news.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon All Day – EU Economic Summit
Tue 01:00 – ECB President Draghi Speaks
Thu 19:00 – ECB President Draghi Speaks
Fri 21:00 – CPI Flash Estimate (annual)

For a sustained move higher we would like to see the EURO close and hold above 1.1335 early in the week. Should this occur we could see a strong move into 1.1453 and any breaks above this level may mean a quick move into 1.1496 before a pause. A strong close above this level however could see the EURO rally strong into 1.1613 by the week’s end.

If the EURO cannot close above 1.1335, we could see a fast move down into 1.1249 before a pause. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 1.1201, however any weakness below this level could see a sharp drop into 1.1117 before the week’s end.

 

GBP/USD – 1.2804 ( -20 or -0.16% )

Have we not said over the past few weeks that Pound volatility is set to ramp up!?! This week is yet another week where we expect to see continued volatility and we will again be covering this in the MEMBER PORTAL this week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 17:30 – BoE Governor Carney Speaks
Wed TBC – BoE Stress Test Results
Thu 20:30 – Net Lending to Individuals (monthly)

For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable close above 1.3035, followed by a retest of 1.3161 before a pause. Should this occur we will look for a move to 1.3191 and 1.3277; and if momentum is very strong we could see a re-test of last week’s highs into 1.3386.

On the downside, should we fail to close above 1.2868, we could see this market retest the key 1.2720 level. A strong break below this level however sets this market up for a bigger move down into 1.2622; and if downside momentum remains strong we could see a quick drop into 1.2480.

 

USD/JPY – 112.91 ( +8 or +0.07% )

The $/YEN closed the week only slightly higher and so our levels remain unchanged for this week.

For a move to the upside we must now see this market hold above 112.68. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 113.87 before another pause; with the potential for a quick move into 114.08.

If we cannot hold above 112.68, we are likely to see a move down into 111.73. A strong break and close below this level could result in a move back down to 111.09, and if momentum to the downside is very strong we may see a very sharp move down into 110.45.

 

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 1222 ( +1 or +0.08% )

GOLD is now at a make or break and this market is showing signs of a BIG move coming.

For a move higher we must now see this market close above 1222. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 1238. A close above this level may likely see a further move to the upside into 1247 before a pause. Should momentum remain very strong, we could see a fast move into 1260.

If Gold cannot close above 1222, we will look for a move back down into 1206. Any subsequent breaks of this level however may result in a bigger move down into 1187, and if momentum to the downside remains very strong we cannot rule out a sharp move into 1170.

 

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