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Market Brief – Monday 24th September 2018

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX – 6173 ( -4 or -0.06% )

The ASX remains in a very tight consolidation, as sellers managed to close the market slightly lower last week. Will we break out this week?

For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX hold above 6140 followed by a retest of 6206. Should this occur we will look for a move into 6276, and if momentum to the upside is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 6345 and 6374.

If the ASX cannot hold above 6140, we will look for a move back down to 6085 before a pause. A strong break and close below this level however could see the ASX retest 6040, and if downside momentum is very strong we could see a move down to 6002.

 

EUROPE

DAX – 12408 ( +286 or +2.36% )

The DAX posted an excellent move to the upside last week and has now almost completely faded the prior move down. We will be discussing this market extensively in the MEMBER PORTAL this week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 18:00 – German Ifo Business Climate
Mon 23:00 – ECB President Draghi speaks
Thu 17:00 – German Prelim CPI (monthly)
Thu 23:30 – ECB President Draghi speaks

For a continued move to the upside we must now see the DAX hold above 12384 followed by a move into 12566. A break of this level could then result into a quick move into 12640; followed by continuation into 12714. If momentum to the upside is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 12830.

If the DAX fails to hold above 12384, we expect to see a move back down into 12198 before a pause. A break below this level however means we may see more selling into 12115; and if momentum is very strong to the downside we may see a sharp move into 12044.

 

US

SP500 – 2926 ( +22 or +0.76% )

The S&P finally broke out to new all time highs and the big 2950 is now within sight. As we head into FED week- can this market reach this level? We will be discussing this in more detail in the LIVE CHAT ROOM.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 04:00 – FED Interest Rate Announcement – LIVE TV
Thu 04:30 – FOMC Press Conference
Thu 22:30 – Core Durable Goods Orders (monthly)
Thu 22:30 – Final GDP (quarterly)
Fri 06:30 – Fed Chair Powell speaks
Fri 23:45 – Chicago PMI
Sat 00:00 – Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

For a move higher we would like to see the S&P hold above 2922 followed by a retest of 2930. Should this occur we will look for a move into 2946 which may see the bulls push this market higher into 2950 – 2957. If momentum is strong we cannot rule out a move to 2977.

If we cannot hold above 2922, we will look for a move back down to 2908. A break below this level may result in another quick move down into 2870; and if momentum to the downside is very strong we cannot rule out a move into 2840.

 

FOREX

AUD/USD – 0.7288 ( +135 or +1.89% )

The Aussie dollar put in a very interesting low early in the week and since then has not looked back. But now we are at important technical resistance..

For a move higher we would like to see the AUD hold above 0.7282, followed by a retest and close above 0.7364. A strong break and close above this level could see a quick move to 0.7447 before a pause; and if momentum remains very strong we will look for a big move into 0.7489.

If we cannot hold above 0.7282, we will look for a move back down to 0.7229. A strong break below this level may result in a move down into 0.7169 before another potential pause. Any subsequent breaks of this level however may result in a very fast move down to 0.7112.

 

EUR/USD – 1.1754 ( +132 or +1.14% )

Like the Aussie Dollar, the Euro has also come into key technical resistance with yet another sell-off on the last day of the week (Friday). We will be discussing this in more detail in the LIVE CHAT ROOM.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 18:00 – German Ifo Business Climate
Mon 23:00 – ECB President Draghi speaks
Thu 17:00 – German Prelim CPI (monthly)
Thu 23:30 – ECB President Draghi speaks
Fri 19:00 – CPI Flash Estimate (annual)

For a sustained move higher we would like to see the EURO hold above 1.1738 this week. Should this occur we could see a strong move into 1.1834; whilst a strong break above this level may see a run into the big figure at 1.1927.

If the EURO cannot hold above 1.1738, we could see a fast move down into 1.1613. A break below this could be followed by another quick move into 1.1496; and should momentum remain strong we cannot rule out a move to 1.1453.

 

GBP/USD – 1.3083 ( +15 or +0.11% )

In Friday’s LIVE TV we mentioned the move to the upside looked exhaustive and we could see some down-sideways going into this week. We will be discussing the importance with Friday’s sell-off in the LIVE CHAT ROOM.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Fri 18:30 – Current Account
Fri 18:30 – Final GDP (quarterly)

For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable remain above 1.3035, followed by a retest of 1.3111 and 1.3161 before a pause. Should this occur we will look for a move to 1.3191; and if momentum is very strong we could see a re-test of last week’s highs into 1.3277.

On the downside, should we break and close strongly below 1.2868, there is every chance we see a move lower into 1.2720. Should this level break however we could see a fast move down into 1.2622; and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 1.2510.

 

USD/JPY – 112.55 ( +51 or +0.46% )

The $/YEN is also at a very key area having failed to close above our level of 112.68.

NOTE: Monday is a public holiday in Japan (Autumnal Equinox Day)

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 15:35 – BoJ Governor Kuroda speaks

For a move to the upside we must now see this market close above 112.68.Should this occur we will look for a move into 113.87 – 114.08, and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 114.52.

If we cannot close above 112.68, we will look for a quick retest of 111.73. A break below this level however may result in a fast move down to 111.09, and if the downside remains strong we could see a strong sell-off into 109.94.

 

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 1199 ( +6 or +0.5% )

GOLD has once again remained flat having been contained to the sideways consolidation we first alerted to weeks ago.

For a move higher we would like to see this market close above 1206 on its way to 1222. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 1238. A close above this level may likely see a further move to the upside into 1247 before a pause. Should momentum remain very strong, we could see a fast move into 1260.

If Gold cannot close above 1206, we could see another quick decline into 1187. Any subsequent breaks of this level may result in further downside into 1180, and if momentum to the downside remains very strong we cannot rule out a move into 1170.

 

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