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Market Brief – Monday 24th June 2019

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX – 6646 (+87 or +1.33%)

The ASX is now a little over 200 points from all time highs and this is yet another important week for this market.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 09:30 – RBA Governor Lowe speaks

For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX close back above 6682. Should this occur we will look for a test of 6720. A strong break of this level however could see the ASX rally to 6804, and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 6850.

If the ASX cannot close above 6682, we will look for a move back down to 6544. A strong break and close below this level however could see the ASX move lower into 6435 before a pause; and if downside momentum is very strong, we could see a move down to 6350.

 

EUROPE

DAX – 12273 (+161 or +1.33%)

The DAX has put in a double top going into the final week of the month.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 18:00 – German Ifo Business Climate
Thu 17:00 – German Prelim CPI (monthly)

For a continued move to the upside we must see the DAX hold above 12198. Should this occur we will look for a move into 12384 before a pause. If momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a blow off move to 12566 and 12750.

If the DAX fails to hold above 12198, we will look for a move back down to 12000. Any break below this level however could see the DAX sell-off sharply into 11875 this week; and if downside momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 11720.

 

 

US

SP500 – 2943 (+53 or +1.83%)

The S&P briefly posted all time highs before reversing. Is this a sign of a reversal or just a stop gap? We will be discussing this in more detail in the MEMBER PORTAL.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 00:00 – CB Consumer Confidence
Wed 03:00 – Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Wed 22:30 – Core Durable Goods Orders (monthly)
Thu 22:30 – Final GDP (quarterly)
Fri 22:30 – Personal Spending (monthly)
Fri 23:45 – Chicago PMI

For a move higher we would like to see the S&P close above 2960. Should this occur we will look for a move to 2985. A strong break above this level however sets the stage for a move higher into 3003.

If we cannot close above 2960, we could see this market retest 2941.  A break of this level however may result in quick move down to 2922; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see sharp moves down into 2902 and 2870.

 

 

FOREX

AUD/USD – 0.6925 (+54 or +0.79%)

The Aussie dollar has finally found some support but is this enough? We will be covering this market exclusively in the MEMBER PORTAL.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 09:30 – RBA Governor Lowe speaks
Fri All Day – G20 Meetings Day 1
Sat All Day – G20 Meetings Day 2

For a move higher, we would first like to see the AUD close above 0.6934. Should this occur we will look for a move into 0.6958, and if upside momentum remains very strong we cannot rule out a move to 0.7014 and 0.7112 before a pause.

If the AUD cannot close above 0.6934, we will look for a move lower into 0.6875. A break and close below this level however could see a sharp decline into 0.6830; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we cannot rule out a move into 0.6761.

 

 

EUR/USD – 1.2745 (+155 or +1.23%)

Cable finally closed the week above our important level of 1.2720 for the second time this month. Is this the reversal we have been looking for?  We will be discussing this in the MEMBER PORTAL this week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 19:15 – Inflation Report Hearings
Fri All Day – G20 Meetings Day 1
Fri 18:30 – Current Account, Final GDP (quarterly)
Sat All Day – G20 Meetings Day 2

For a move higher we would like to see the EURO hold above 1.1335 early in the week. Should this occur we could see a strong move into 1.1453 and any breaks above this level may mean a quick move into 1.1496 before a pause. A strong close above this level however could see the EURO rally strong into 1.1613 by the week’s end.

If the EURO cannot hold above 1.1335, we could see a fast move down into 1.1249 before a pause. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 1.1201, however any weakness below this level could see a sharp drop into 1.1117 before the week’s end.

 

 

GBP/USD – 1.2745 (+155 or +1.23%)

Cable finally closed the week above our important level of 1.2720 for the second time this month. Is this the reversal we have been looking for?  We will be discussing this in the MEMBER PORTAL this week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 19:15 – Inflation Report Hearings
Fri All Day – G20 Meetings Day 1
Fri 18:30 – Current Account, Final GDP (quarterly)
Sat All Day – G20 Meetings Day 2

For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable hold above 1.2720, followed by a retest of 1.2868 before a pause. Should this occur we will look for a move to 1.3035 and 1.3161; and if momentum is very strong, we could see a re-test of 1.3191.

On the downside, should we fail to hold above 1.2720, we will be watching the key level at 1.2622 very closely. A strong break below this level however sets this market up for a bigger move down into 1.2480.

 

 

USD/JPY – 107.33 (-121 or -1.11%)

The YEN was the only major currency to finish the week lower this week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Fri All Day – G20 Meetings Day 1
Sat All Day – G20 Meetings Day 2

For a move to the upside we must now see this market close above 107.75, on its way to retesting 108.31 before a pause. A strong break and close above this level could then see the $/YEN rally into 109.21, and if momentum is very strong, we could see a strong move into 109.94.

If we cannot hold above 107.75, we could see a bigger move down to 106.52. A break below this level may however may result in a very fast move to 105.50.

 

 

 

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 1398 (+57 or +4.25%)

Gold is in rally mode having broken a very large area of resistance. Can this market continue this week?

For a continued move higher we must now see this market hold above 1393. Should this occur we will look for a move to 1416; and if momentum remains very strong, we could see a big push into 1433.

If Gold cannot hold above 1393, we will look for a move back down into 1374. A strong break and close below this level however could send this market lower into 1365, and if momentum is strong to the downside we cannot rule out a move lower into 1355.

 

 

 

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