Weekly Market Brief - with Text_Blog2

Market Brief – Monday 23rd February 2015

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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Trade View has entered the weekend Net Long.

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AUSTRALASIA

ASX – 5899  ( – 4 or – 0.07% )

The ASX is trying to move higher but its found it difficult last week. But the massive rally in both the S&P and DAX on Friday night could change that this week. As mentioned last week the ASX could extend it’s gains without any pullback. As the AS has closed almost flat for the week, our comments remain the same.
NOTE: Continued Divergence forming

Moves higher by the ASX will be discussed in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.

If the ASX has overextended its move then we would like to see a strong break back down past 5842 before reaching 5782. If the momentum is strong then we could see a push past 5751. Once this occurs we will be monitoring 5684.

EUROPE

DAX – 11117 ( + 150 or + 1.37% )

Another slow start for the DAX but then as soon as it broken through 11000 the up moves were aggressive and fast. Are we now seeing the new up leg?

For the up move to continue we would like to see a strong move early breaking and closing above the area between 11257 – 92. If this area is broken with strong momentum then we will discuss further upside levels in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.

If the downside move starts then we would like to see an early break past 10989 before a possible leg down towards 10830 occurs. We might then see a further move reaching 10760.

US

S&P – 2110 (  + 13 or  + 0.62% )

Deja-Vu “Another move higher by the S&P closing at a new ATH. This could be the start of a new leg up unless some unexpected news comes out to force it lower.”

For the up move to continue we would like to see a strong early break and close past 2126. As we are now at ATH’s for many Indices, Moves higher will be discussed in our LIVE CHAT ROOM. The main reason for this is that the next target relies on momentum and until this is seen then they cannot be calculated.

For the down move to restart we would like to see an early long down bar break and close past 2104 before getting back down to 2088. If the downward momentum is strong we will be monitoring both 2071 and 2053.

FOREX

AUD.USD – 7844  ( + 95 or + 1.23% )

The AUD moved sideways again last week but trying to pop its head up and look’s like it wants to rally. Even so, we will maintain our upside and downside break levels for now, comments remain the same.

For the up move to restart we would like to see the AUD break back above 7927 before reaching 8088 Once this occurs we can look at further upside moves.

For the downside move to continue we would like to see a strong down bar break past 7718 very quickly. Once this occurs we could see 7494.

EUR.USD – 11378 ( – 10 or – 0.09% )

We mentioned previously that the EUR might be a little confused at the moment, this could be due to the aggressive downside move after the ECB QE program. Has it moved too low too fast? Only time will tell, until then trade the key levels. Is there a short squeeze in the making?

If the EUR moves up again then we would like to see an early break and close back past 11498. If the upward momentum is strong then 11726 could be seen.

For the down move to continue lower we would like to see a strong momentum break and close past 11357. Once this occurs and if the downward momentum continues 11038 could be seen.

GBP.USD – 15402 ( + 18 or + 0.12% )

Last week we said ”Now that the GBP has made an attempt at moving higher, could we see the opposite of “everso grinding lower with sideways ranging moves followed by a sharp move down then rinse and repeat.” or will it go back to its previous behaviour?” Is the current sideways move the precursor for the next up move?

For the GBP to move higher again we would like to see a solid break and close past 15522 before moving back toward 15644.

For the down move to restart we would like to see an early break down past 15366 reaching 15280. If the downward momentum continues strong then we could see 15140.

USD.JPY – 11901 ( + 26 or + 0.22% )

And…sideways we go with wild gaps and swings intra day chopping up traders. We will stick with our call from last week. “Internally Trade View has said that the CHF debacle has opened the door for further currency moves of such a dramatic nature that it will become the norm.
How quick we forget “the markets have been pumped with artificial liquidity for some time now, what do you think will happen when the Central Banks, who don’t care about you and I start removing those funds from the markets? Think about it very carefully. One thing that would not surprise us (we are preparing for) is the US FED raising rates earlier than expected” Last week Trade View was buying the gaps down and selling the aggressive rallies up. If you would like to know what we are doing this week then join our LIVE CHAT ROOM.

For the USD to continue its rally we would like to see an early break past 11931 before extending quickly towards 12064. This level will need to be broken with a long up bar otherwise it could become resistance very quickly.

If the USDJPY restarts back lower then we would like to see strong early moves reaching 11813 followed by 11679.

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 1201 ( – 28 or – 2.28% )

GOLD took another leg down falling below 1200 again. There is not much love fore GOLD at the moment but one investor is sticking to his guns and thinks GOLD will rally John Paulson

For the upward move to restart we would like to see an early break and close back above three key levels of 1208, 1216 and 1226 before reaching the area between 1241 – 52.

If GOLD continues lower then we would like to see strong early breaks past 1180 before it reaches 1167.

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