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Market Brief – Monday 22nd April 2019

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX – 6290 ( +37 or +0.59% )

The ASX is trying to break to the upside however is still range bound. Will we see a break this week?

NOTE: Monday is a public holiday around the world (Easter Monday), and Thursday is ANZAC day.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 11:30 – CPI (quarterly)

For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX hold above 6276 on its way to 6345. Should this occur we will look for a quick break into 6350 and if momentum to the upside is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 6435.

If the ASX cannot hold above 6276, we will look for a move back down to 6180 for strong support. A strong break and close below this level however could see the ASX retest 6140, and if downside momentum is very strong we could see a move down to 6070.

EUROPE

DAX – 12243 ( +228 or +1.9% )

The DAX had yet another strong week and has closed above 12000 for the first time this year. We will be discussing this market in the  LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.

NOTE: Monday is a public holiday around the world (Easter Monday)

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 18:00 – German Ifo Business Climate

For a continued move to the upside we must see the DAX hold above 12198. Should this occur we will look for a move into 12384 before a pause. If momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a blow off move to 12566.

If the DAX fails to close above 12198, we will look for a move back down to 12044. Any break below this level however could see the DAX sell-off sharply into 11875 this week.

 

US

SP500 – 2907 ( +0 or +0.00% )

The S&P is consolidating the move here and we are watching this market very closely for signs of a top. We will be discussing what this week should look like in the MEMBER PORTAL.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 22:30 – Core Durable Goods Orders
Fri 22:30 – Advance GDP (quarterly)

For a move higher we would like to see the S&P hold above 2902. Should this occur we will look for a move into 2922 before a pause. A strong break below this level however sets the stage for a move to 2941, and any break of this level could see a fast move to 2950 – 2960.

If we cannot hold above 2902, we could see this market sell-off into 2870 and then 2838 before another pause. A break of this level however may result in quick move down to 2808; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see a move down into 2785.

 

FOREX

AUD/USD – 0.7148 ( -24 or -0.33% )

The Aussie dollar continues to grind its way higher albeit is still in a holding pattern.

NOTE: Monday is a public holiday around the world (Easter Monday), and Thursday is ANZAC day.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 11:30 – CPI (quarterly)

For a move higher, we would first like to see the AUD hold above 0.7113. Should this occur we will look for a move into 0.7197, and if upside momentum remains strong we will look for 0.7229 – 0.7236 before a pause.

If the AUD cannot hold above 0.7113, we will look for a move lower into 0.7014. A break and close below this level however could see a sharp decline into 0.6997. Any further breaks to the downside could then see the AUD quickly trade at 0.6958 and 0.6934; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we cannot rule out a move into 0.6830.

 

EUR/USD – 1.1240 ( -58 or -0.51% )

After putting in an important bottom the Euro has now created yet another swing high putting pressure on the bulls. We will  be covering this in detail in the MEMBER PORTAL.

NOTE: Monday is a public holiday in Europe (Easter Monday)

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 18:00 – Flash Services PMI, Flash Manufacturing PMI

For a move higher we would like to see the EURO close above 1.1249 early in the week. Should this occur we could see a retest into 1.1335 and any breaks above this level may mean a quick move into 1.1453 before a pause. A strong close above this level however could see the EURO rally strong into 1.1496 by the week’s end.

If the EURO cannot close above 1.1249, we could see a fast move down into 1.1201 before a pause. A strong break of this level may result in a move into, however any weakness below this level could see a sharp drop into 1.1117 before the week’s end.

 

GBP/USD – 1.2988 ( -83 or -0.63% )

Things in the UK are  getting very quiet and should be watched closely now for an explosive move. GET READY.

NOTE: Monday is a public holiday in the UK (Easter Monday)

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 18:30 – Unemployment Rate
Wed 18:30 – CPI (annual)
Thu 18:30 – Retail Sales, BoE Credit Conditions Survey

For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable close above 1.3035 and break through 1.3161 this week. Should this occur we will look for a move to 1.3191 and 1.3277; and if momentum is very strong we could see a re-test of last week’s highs into 1.3386.

On the downside, if we cannot close above 1.3035  we will look for a move back down to 1.2868. A break below this level however could see this market retest the important 1.2720 level; and if momentum to the downside is strong we cannot rule out a bigger move down to 1.2622.

 

USD/JPY – 111.91 ( -9 or -0.08% )

The YEN has remained in a very narrow range and as such our levels remain unchanged going into an important week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 12:30 – BoJ Interest Rate Announcement

For a move to the upside we must now see this market hold above 111.73. Should this occur we could see a strong move into 112.22. A strong break and close above this level could then see the $/YEN rally into 112.68, and if momentum is extremely strong to the upside 113.27 cannot be ruled out.

If we cannot hold above 111.73, we will look for another quick retest of 111.09. A break below this level however may result in a fast move down to 110.67, and if the downside remains very strong we cannot rule out a sell-off into 109.94.

 

 

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 1275 ( -15 or -1.16% )

Gold has broken our key levels to the downside; albeit not convincingly and the question now is are sellers trapped, or sending this market lower?

For a continued move higher we must now see this market close and hold above 1278. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 1294. A strong close above this level could see further upside into 1303; and if momentum remains very strong, we could see a big push into 1313.

If Gold cannot close above 1278, we will look for a move back down into 1260. A strong break and close below this level however could see Gold trade quickly into 1247 before a pause.

 

 

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