This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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ASX – 5777 ( +3 or +0.05% )
The ASX was basically sideways all week last week despite failed attempts from sellers to really push this market lower. Now is the time to watch this market closely as we are anticipating a breakout soon. We will be talking about this in more detail in the MEMBER PORTAL this week.
VOLATILITY ALERT: Monetary Policy Minutes on Tuesday.
For a continued move higher we would like to see the ASX hold above 5746, followed by a strong break and close above 5777. A break of this level could A strong break and close of 5777 may result in a retest of 5823, and if momentum is very strong this week we will could see a strong rally into 5875.
If the ASX cannot hold above 5705, we are likely to see a quick move down to 5690. A strong break and close below this level could see the ASX test 5606 and if momentum is strong we could easily see further losses down to 5589 this week.
DAX – 12080 ( +129 or -1.08% )
The DAX continues to edge its way higher. This week is relatively quiet on the economic front however we are monitoring this market closely following the Dutch referendum last week.
VOLATILITY ALERT: Flash Manufacturing PMI on Friday.
For a continued move to the upside we must see the DAX hold above 12054. Should we see a strong break above this level, we will look for another push back up to 12198, and if momentum is strong we may see a strong move into 12381. A strong break above this level means we will be at ALL-TIME HIGH’s (12404)
If the DAX fails to hold above 12054, we will look for a move back down to 11871. A strong break below this level is likely to see a push further down into the 11788 – 11754 area; and if momentum is very strong to the downside this week a move to 11591 cannot be ruled out.
SP500 – 2378 (+7 or +0.3% )
As expected the FED raised rates last week and the market rallied on a slightly more hawkish FED than expected. We called this market in our LIVE TV last week again re-iterating bulls have the upper hand at the moment. We will be again covering this market extensively on the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.
VOLATILITY ALERT: US Current Account on Tuesday, New Home Sales and Yellen speaks on Thursday, Core Durable Goods on Friday.
For a move higher we would like to see a the S&P hold above our key 2376 level followed by a strong break of 2386 level. Should we break strongly through 2386, we will look for a retest of 2400, and if momentum is very strong our next level higher comes in at 2417.
If we cannot hold above 2376, we will look for a move back down to 2360. A close below this level will likely see the market retest the very important 2350 level; and if momentum to the downside is strong a move down to 2334 cannot be ruled out.
AUD/USD – 0.7704 ( +165 or +2.19% )
The Aussie dollar put in a 2% day to the upside following the FOMC announcement and has held up going into weekly close. We are now at a critical area and will be discussing this in the MEMBER PORTAL in more detail this week.
VOLATILITY ALERT: Monetary Policy Minutes on Tuesday.
For a move higher we would like to see this market hold above above 0.7677. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 0.7729. A strong break and close above this key level could see this market rally to 0.7833, and if momentum is strong our next level higher is 0.7903.
On the downside, a failure to close above 0.7677 will likely result in a move back down to 0.7616. A strong break below this level could see a move into 0.7561, and if momentum is strong to the downside we will look for another move down into 0.7487 before a pause. Should the Aussie dollar continue to sell-off next week, we may see a strong move into 0.7446.
EUR/USD – 1.0737 ( +66 or +0.62% )
In light of last week’s Dutch Elections the EURO continues to show signs of a major move. Don’t sleep on this market as we might be seeing a very big shift occurring before our eyes.
VOLATILITY ALERT: Euro Area Flash Manufacturing PMI on Friday.
For a sustained move higher we would like to see this market hold above 1.0738. If we can hold above this level we will look for a move back into the key 1.0814. A strong break and close above this level could see a fast move into 1.0902, and if momentum is very strong we will be watching the key area between 1.0977 – 1.1000.
If we cannot hold above 1.0738, we will look for a retest of 1.0631. A break below this level could see a move down to 1.0525; and should there be a full fade of this current rally we will look for a move to 1.0462 very quickly.
GBP/USD – 1.2391 ( +228 or +1.87% )
The GBP strengthened last week, breaking through our key level at 1.2297 and like the EURO could be setting up for a major move.
VOLATILITY ALERT: CPI on Tuesday, Retail Sales on Thursday.
For a move to the upside we would like to this market hold above 1.2297. A strong break and close above this level should see a retest of 1.2384. Should we break this level we could see 1.2480 quickly, and if momentum remains strong a move to 1.2622 is possible.
A break back below 1.2297 could once again see this market test the big 1.2100 support area. Should we break below 1.2100, we will look for another move into 1.2000.
USD/JPY – 112.72 ( -208 or -1.81% )
NOTE: Monday is a Public Holiday in Japan
The $/YEN was sold aggressively last week on the FED and this market is also showing signs of a reversal as we head into this week.
For a continued move to the upside we must first see this market hold above our KEY level at 112.22. Should this occur we will look for a move back up to 114.52. A break above this level could likely see a retest of 115.54, and if momentum is strong we will look for a move higher into 116.08.
If we cannot hold above 112.22, we will look for a move 111.73. A break below this level could result in a fast move down to 111.09, and if momentum to the downside is strong we may see a sharp move down into 110.10.
GOLD – 1229 ( +25 or +2.08% )
After failing to hold below the key 1206 level, GOLD has rallied and we are again approaching a key area here at 1230.
For a continued move higher we want to see this market hold above 1222, and break strongly through 1230. Should this occur we will look for a move higher back up to 1247. A break of this level could see GOLD rally higher back into 1257.
If Gold cannot hold above 1222, we will look for a move lower into the very important 1206 level again. We will then need to see a strong break and close below this level for a move lower into the 1187-1181 area.
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