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Market Brief – Monday 20th July 2020

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX – 6065 ( +34 or +0.56% )

The ASX remains in a sideways consolidation for yet another week as we get closer to a much bigger move.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 12:30 – RBA Governor Lowe speaks
Wed 11:30 – Retail Sales (monthly)

For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX close above 6070 followed by a push into  6140. Should this occur we will look for a move into 6206, and if momentum to the upside remains strong we cannot rule out a move to 6276.

If the ASX cannot hold above 6070, we will look for a move back down to 5921 before a pause. A strong break and close below this level however could see the ASX retest 5823, and if downside momentum is very strong we could see a move down to 5746.

 

EUROPE

DAX – 12964 ( +255 or +2.01% )

The DAX is pushing up against important highs with news out of Europe propelling this market higher. We will be  discussing this in the MEMBER PORTAL this week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Sun ALL DAY – EU Economic Summit
Fri 17:30 – German Flash Manufacturing, Services PMI

For a continued move to the upside we must now see the DAX hold above 12714. Should this occur, we will look for a strong move into 13050, and if momentum remains strong a push back higher into 13205.

If the DAX fails to hold above 12714, we may see a retest back down into the key level of 12566. A close below this level is likely to see a retest of 12366; however if momentum is very strong to the downside we cannot rule out a move to 12166.

 

US

SP500 – 3222 ( +34 or +1.07% )

The S&P is also pushing up against important highs. Can it continue to rally into higher territory? 

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Fri 23:45 – Flash Manufacturing PMI

For a move higher we would like to see the S&P hold above 3208. Should this occur, we will look for a move higher into 3248. A strong break above this level however sets the stage for a move higher into 3274.

If we cannot hold above 3208, we could see this market move lower into 3166. A break of this level however may result in a quick move down to 3106; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see a fast move down to 2998. 

 

FOREX

AUD/USD – 0.6993 ( +45 or +0.65% )

Our comments from last week remain the same as the Aussie Dollar continues to push up against the all-important 0.7000c area.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 12:30 – RBA Governor Lowe speaks
Wed 11:30 – Retail Sales (monthly)

For a move higher, we would first like to see the AUD close above 0.7014. Should this occur we will look for a move into 0.7113, and if upside momentum remains very strong we cannot rule out a move to 0.7197 – 0.7236 before a pause.

If the AUD cannot close above 0.7014, we will look for the AUD to 0.6934. A break and close below this level however could see a sharp decline into 0.6830; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we cannot rule out a move into 0.6750.

 

EUR/USD – 1.1424 ( +125 or +1.11% )

The EURO is trading at multi-year highs and has every chance to rally higher from here. We will be discussing this market again in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Sun ALL DAY – EU Economic Summit
Fri 17:30 – German Flash Manufacturing, Services PMI
Fri 17:30 – Euro Area Flash Manufacturing, Services PMI

For a move higher we would like to see the EURO close above 1.1453 early in the week. Should this occur we could see a strong move into 1.1496; and any breaks above this level may mean a quick move into 1.1613 before a pause.

If the EURO cannot close above 1.1453, we could see a fast move down into 1.1335 before a pause. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 1.1249, however any weakness below this level could see a sharp drop into 1.1201 before the week’s end.

 

GBP/USD – 1.2566 ( -57 or -0.45% )

Cable remained in a very narrow sideways range last week as the market prices in some  BoE faces some difficult decisions in the coming months.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Fri 16:00 – Retail Sales (monthly)
Fri 18:30 – Flash Manufacturing, Services PMI

For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable hold above 1.2480, followed by a retest of 1.2622  before a pause. Should this occur we will look for a move to 1.2720; and if momentum is very strong we could see a re-test of 1.2868.

Should we fail to hold above 1.2480, we will be watching the key level at 1.2297 very closely. Any weakness below this level however sets this market up for a move down into 1.2080. If momentum is very strong to the downside we cannot rule out a move to 1.2000.

 

USD/JPY – 107.02 ( +11 or +0.1% )

Like the British Pound, the $/YEN also saw a very narrow range as we again test a key level.

NOTE: Thursday and Friday are bank holidays in Japan (Marine and Health-Sports Days)

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 12:30 – BoJ Interest Rate Announcement, Press Conference

For a move to the upside we must now see this market close above 108.31. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 109.21, and if momentum is very strong we could see a move higher into 109.94 and potentially 111.73.

If we cannot close above 108.31, we could see a move lower into 106.52. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 105.50; and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 104.97.

 

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 1809 ( +11 or +0.61% )

Gold is consolidating around the 1800 level and this market is also set to rally higher if it can hold.

For a continued move higher we must now see this market hold above 1786. Should this occur we would then need to see a strong break of 1830. Should this occur we could see a stronger move to 1850.

If Gold cannot hold above 1786, we will look for a move back down to 1755. A break below this level could see a move lower into 1724; and if momentum is very strong to the downside we could see a move to 1702.

 

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The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, holding or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View Investments accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.

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