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Market Brief – Monday 1st July 2019

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX – 6647 (+1 or +0.02%)

The ASX spent the majority of the week consolidating as we head into an important week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 02:30 – RBA Interest Rate Announcement
Wed 11:30 – Building Approvals (monthly), Trade Balance
Thu 11:30 – Retail Sales (monthly)

For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX close back above 6682. Should this occur we will look for a test of 6720. A strong break of this level however could see the ASX rally to 6804, and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 6850.

If the ASX cannot close above 6682, we will look for a move back down to 6544. A strong break and close below this level however could see the ASX move lower into 6435 before a pause; and if downside momentum is very strong, we could see a move down to 6350.

 

EUROPE

DAX – 12400 (+127 or +1.03%)

The DAX has put in a double top going into the final week of the month.

The DAX is in a position to push higher this week, can it break to the upside? We will be discussing this in the MEMBER PORTAL.

For a continued move to the upside we must see the DAX hold above 12384. Should this occur we will look for a move into 12566 before a pause. If momentum is very strong, we could see a fast move  to 12750.

If the DAX fails to hold above 12384, we will look for a move back down to 12198. Any break below this level however could see the DAX sell-off sharply into 12000 this week.

 

 

US

SP500 – 2949 (+6 or +0.2%)

The S&P is only a few points shy off the all-time high as we head into the 4th July. We will be discussing this market in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.

NOTE: Thursday is a public holiday in the US (Independence Day)

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 00:00 – ISM Manufacturing PMI
Fri 22:30 – Non-Farm Unemployment – LIVE TV

For a move higher we would like to see the S&P close above 2960. Should this occur we will look for a move to 2985. A strong break above this level however sets the stage for a move higher into 3003.

If we cannot close above 2960, we could see this market retest 2941.  A break of this level however may result in quick move down to 2922; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see sharp moves down into 2902 and 2870.

 

 

FOREX

AUD/USD – 0.7023 (+98 or +1.42%)

The Aussie dollar posted its strongest week in many months and the rhetoric now shifts to the RBA again. We will be covering this market exclusively in the MEMBER PORTAL

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 02:30 – RBA Interest Rate Announcement
Wed 11:30 – Building Approvals (monthly), Trade Balance
Thu 11:30 – Retail Sales (monthly)

For a move higher, we would first like to see the AUD hold above 0.7014. Should this occur we will look for a move into 0.7113, and if upside momentum remains very strong we cannot rule out a move to 0.7197 – 0.7236 before a pause.

If the AUD cannot hold above 0.7014, we will look for a move lower into 6958. A break and close below this level however could see a sharp decline into 0.6934; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we cannot rule out a move into 0.6830.

 

 

EUR/USD – 1.1370 (+1 or +0.01%)

The Euro remained flat last week and as such our levels remain unchanged.

For a move higher we would like to see the EURO hold above 1.1335 early in the week. Should this occur we could see a strong move into 1.1453 and any breaks above this level may mean a quick move into 1.1496 before a pause. A strong close above this level however could see the EURO rally strong into 1.1613 by the week’s end.

 If the EURO cannot hold above 1.1335, we could see a fast move down into 1.1249 before a pause. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 1.1201, however any weakness below this level could see a sharp drop into 1.1117 before the week’s end.

 

 

GBP/USD – 1.2695 (-50 or -0.39%)

The Pound was also sideways for most of the week finishing slightly down. This market is setting up for an interesting move now. We will be discussing this in the MEMBER PORTAL this week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Mon 18:30 – Manufacturing PMI
Wed 18:30 – Services PMI

For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable close above 1.2720, followed by a retest of 1.2868 before a pause. Should this occur we will look for a move to 1.3035 and 1.3161; and if momentum is very strong, we could see a re-test of 1.3191.

On the downside, should we fail to close above 1.2720, we will be watching the key level at 1.2622 very closely. A strong break below this level however sets this market up for a bigger move down into 1.2480.

 

 

USD/JPY – 107.92 (+59 or +0.55%)

The $/YEN began its short squeeze as we spoke about in the Member Portal last week and this is now an important test for the bulls.

For a move to the upside we must now see this market hold above 107.75, on its way to retesting 108.31 before a pause. A strong break and close above this level could then see the $/YEN rally into 109.21, and if momentum is very strong, we could see a strong move into 109.94.

If we cannot hold above 107.75, we could see a bigger move down to 106.52. A break below this level may however may result in a very fast move to 105.50.

 

 

 

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 1409 (+11 or +0.79%)

Gold has taken a break from its strong rally. Will this market pull off or consolidate here?

For a continued move higher we must now see this market hold above 1402. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 1416; and if momentum remains very strong, we could see another retest of 1433. A strong close above this level however could see Gold rally to 1450.

If Gold cannot hold above 1402, we will look for a move back down into 1393. A strong break and close below this level however could send this market lower into 1374, and if momentum is strong to the downside we cannot rule out a move lower into 1365.

 

 

 

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The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, holding or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View Investments accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.

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