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Market Brief – Monday 19th August 2019

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX – 6450 (-125 or -1.9%)

The ASX has sold off for its 3rd consecutive week following new all time highs. We will be discussing this again in the MEMBER PORTAL.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 11:30 – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX hold above 6435. Should this occur, we will look for a test of 6500, and above this 6550. If momentum to the upside is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 6670.

If the ASX cannot hold above 6435, we will look for a move back down to 6350 for strong support. A strong break and close below this level however could see the ASX retest 6276, and if downside momentum is very strong, we could see a move down to 6180.

 

EUROPE

DAX – 11567 (-166 or -1.41%)

The DAX was also weaker last week but has this market managed to catch a few shorts on the long side? We will find out for sure this week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Thu 17:30 – German Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI
Thu 21:30 – ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

For a continued move to the upside we must see the DAX close strongly above the 11755 – 11790 area. Should this occur, we will look for a retest 11875. If momentum is very strong, a break and close above this level could see another push higher into 12054.

If the DAX fails to close above 11755, we will look for a move back down to 11362 before a potential pause. If this market continues to sell-off,  a very strong move down into 11050 cannot be ruled out.

 

US

SP500 – 2891 (-33 or -1.13%)

We’ve said it time and time again. The US continues to lead global equities and last week was no surprise, staging a decent recovery albeit not enough to finish the week green. We will again be discussing this market in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 22:30 – CPI (monthly)
Thu 22:30 – Retail Sales (monthly), Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
Fri 22:30 – Building Permits
Sat 00:00 – Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

For a move higher we would like to see the S&P close above 2902. Should this occur we will look for a move to 2922, and potentially 2941 again before a pause. A strong break above this level however sets the stage for a move higher into 2960 and 2985.

If we cannot close above 2902, we could see this market retest 2838.  A break of this level however may result in quick move down to 2812; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see a very sharp move down into 2800 and 2785.

 

 

FOREX

AUD/USD – 0.6776 (-8 or -0.12%)

The Aussie Dollar remained flat all week as speculation on the RBA’s next move increases. We will be discussing the significance of this exclusively in the LIVE CHAT ROOM.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 11:30 – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

For a move higher, we would first like to see the AUD hold above 0.6762. Should this occur, we will look for a retest of of 0.6875, and if upside momentum remains very strong, we may see a push higher into 0.6934 before a pause.

If the AUD cannot hold above 0.6762, we will look for a retest of 0.6706. A break and close below this level sets the stage for a larger move down to 0.6598.

 

 

EUR/USD – 1.1089 (-111 or -0.99%)

The Euro is testing some very big levels now and we are watching this market very closely as some of our technical indicators are beginning to line up.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Thu 18:00 – Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI
Thu 21:30 – ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

For a move higher we would like to see the EURO close above 1.1197 early in the week. Should this occur we could see a retest into 1.1249 and any breaks above this level may mean a quick move into 1.1335 before a further pause. 

If the EURO cannot close above 1.1197, we could see a bigger push down into 1.1033 before a pause. A strong break of this level may however result in a fast move down into 1.0977 before the week’s end.

 

 

GBP/USD – 1.2146 (+121 or +1.01%)

Unlike the Euro, the Pound managed to find some support last week but is it enough? We will be discussing the significance of this exclusively in the MEMBER PORTAL.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Wed 18:30 – Public Sector Net Borrowing

For a continued move to the upside, we need to see Cable hold above 1.2100. Should this occur we will love for a move back up into 1.2195, and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a strong push into 1.2297.

On the downside, if the Pound cannot hold above 1.2100, we are likely to see a quick move down into 1.2000. A break below this level could see a fast move down to 1.1896, and below this we have a major level at 1.1706.

 

 

USD/JPY – 106.36 (+75 or +0.71%)

This week Japan returns to a full week and following an increase in volatility over the past few weeks, will we see this trend continue?.

For a move to the upside we must now see this market close above 106.52, on its way to retesting 107.25 before a pause. A strong break and close above this level could then see the $/YEN rally into 107.75, and if momentum is very strong we could see moves to 108.31 and 108.70.

If we cannot close above 106.52, we could see a fast move lower into 105.50. A break below this level may result in a retest of 104.97 and this is where things get very interesting. A break below this level could mean a very sharp move down to 103.39.

 

 

 

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 1512 (+16 or +1.07%)

As we stated last week “Gold continues to outperform however this market is now moving into an area of heavy resistance..” Is there a surprise in store this week? We will be discussing the significance of this exclusively in the LIVE CHAT ROOM.

For a continued move higher we must now see this market hold above 1505. Should this occur, we will look for a move to 1526 ; and if momentum remains very strong, a strong break above this level could see Gold rally quickly into 1540 and 1552.

If Gold cannot hold above 1505, we will look for a move back down into 1480. A strong break and close below this level could send this market lower into 1470, and if momentum is strong to the downside we cannot rule out a move lower into 1450.

 

 

 

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The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, holding or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View Investments accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.

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