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Market Brief – Monday 18th March 2019

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX – 6204 (+17 or +0.27%)

The ASX struggled last week despite if momentum to the upside is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 6345.

If the ASX cannot close above 6206, we will look for managing to close slightly higher.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 11:30 – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Mon 11:30 – Unemployment Rate

For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX close above 6206. Should this occur we will look for a move into 6276, and a move back down to 6180 before a pause. A strong break and close below this level however could see the ASX retest 6140, and if downside momentum is very strong we could see a move down to 6070.

EUROPE

DAX – 11686 (+193 or +1.68%)

The DAX has broken out and continues to be in a position to post a larger rally should we break this week’s key resistance levels. We will be discussing the importance of this move in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 21:00 – German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Thu All Day – EU Economic Summit
Fri 19:30 – German Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI

For a continued move to the upside we must see the DAX close strongly above the 11755 – 11790 area. Should this occur, we will look for a retest 11875. If momentum is very strong, a break and close above this level could see another push higher into 12054.

If the DAX fails to close above 11755, we will look for a move back down to 11362 before a potential pause. If this market continues to sell-off,  a very strong move down into 11050 cannot be ruled out.

 

US

SP500 – 2824 (+76 or +2.77%)

The S&P continues to lead global markets higher having closed above the important 2808 level; going into a very important week. We will be discussing this market in the MEMBER PORTAL as it happens.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Thu 05:00 – FOMC Interest Rate Announcement
Thu 05:30 – FOMC Press Conference
Thu 23:30 – Philly FED Manufacturing Index

For a move higher we would like to see the S&P close above 2838. Should this occur we will look for a strong move into 2850. A strong break above this level could see this market trade into 2870 quickly; and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move into 2889.

If we cannot close above 2838, we could see this market trade back down to 2808. A break of this level however may result in quick move back down to 2790; and if momentum is strong to the downside we could see a sharp move down to 2760.

 

FOREX

AUD/USD – 0.7085 (+40 or +0.57%)

The Aussie Dollar remains at a very key level as sellers continue to put pressure on this market.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 11:30 – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Mon 11:30 – Unemployment Rate

For a move higher, we would first like to see the AUD close above 0.7113. Should this occur we will look for a move into 0.7197, and if upside momentum remains strong we will look for 0.7229 – 0.7236 before a pause.

If the AUD cannot close above 0.7113, we will look for a move lower into 0.7014. A break and close below this level however could see a sharp decline into 0.6997. Any further breaks to the downside could then see the AUD quickly trade at 0.6958 and 0.6934; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we cannot rule out a move into 0.6830.

 

EUR/USD – 1.1325 (+92 or +0.82%)

Like the Aussie Dollar, the Euro is also testing a very key level here.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Thu All Day – EU Economic Summit
Fri 20:00 – Euro-Area Flash Manufacturing PMI, Euro-Area Services PMI

For a move higher we would like to see the EURO hold above 1.1249 early in the week. Should this occur we could see a retest into 1.1335 and any breaks above this level may mean a quick move into 1.1453 before a pause. A strong close above this level however could see the EURO rally strong into 1.1496 by the week’s end.

If the EURO cannot hold above 1.1249, we could see a fast move down into 1.1201 before a pause. A strong break of this level may result in a move into, however any weakness below this level could see a sharp drop into 1.1117 before the week’s end.

 

GBP/USD – 1.3295 (+279 or +2.14%)

The Pound continues to remain highly volatile as Brexit news continues to shake this market both ways. We will again be covering this in more detail in the MEMBER PORTAL.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 20:30 – Unemployment Rate
Wed 06:00 (TBC)  – Parliament Brexit Vote
Wed 20:30 – CPI (annual)
Thu 20:30 – Retail Sales (monthly)
Thu 23:00 – BoE Interest Rate Announcement

For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable hold above 1.3277 this week. Should this occur we will look for a move to 1.3386 and if momentum is very strong we could see a bigger move into 1.3534

On the downside, if we cannot hold above 1.3277 we will look for a move back down to 1.3161. A break below this level however could see this market retest the important  1.2868; and if momentum to the downside is very strong we cannot rule out a bigger move to 1.2720.

 

USD/JPY – 111.92  (+127 or +1.15%)

The YEN continues to consolidate its move higher and our levels this week have not changed.

NOTE: Wednesday is a public holiday in Japan (Vernal Equinox Day)

For a move to the upside we must now see this market close above 111.73. Should this occur we could see $/YEN rally into 112.68 and 113.29 by the end of this week.

If we cannot hold above 111.73, we will look for another quick retest of 111.09.. A break below this level however may result in a fast move down to 109.94

 

 

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 1302 (+4 or +0.31%)

Like the Aussie Dollar, Gold also remains under pressure and this is yet another important week for this market.

For a continued move higher we must now see this market hold above 1294. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 1303. A strong close above this level could see further upside into 1313; and if momentum remains very strong, we could see a big push into 1322 and 1333.

If Gold cannot hold above 1294, we will look for a move back down into 1285. A strong break and close below this level however takes us down into the key 1276 – 1278 area. Should this level break, we could see a strong move down to 1260.

 

 

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