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Market Brief – Monday 16th September 2019

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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INDICES

 AUSTRALASIA

 ASX – 6667 ( +28 or +0.42% )

The ASX has reached one of our key resistance levels last week and this week is yet another important test for this market. We will be discussing this in the MEMBER PORTAL this week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Thu 11:30 – Unemployment Numbers

For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX hold above 6635. Should this occur, we will look for a test of 6682. If momentum to the upside continues we could see a retest of 6804, and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out rule out a move to 6850.

If the ASX cannot hold above 6635, we will look for a move back down to 6544. A strong break and close below this level however could see the ASX retest 6435 before a pause; and if downside momentum is very strong, we could see a move down to 6350.

 

EUROPE

DAX – 12454 ( +281 or +2.31% )

The DAX continues its impressive performance as we approach the all important 12566 level.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 19:00 – German ZEW Economic Sentiment

For a continued move to the upside we must see the DAX hold above 12374. Should this occur, we will look for a move off 12566 into 12714. If momentum is very strong, we could see a fast move  to 12921.

If the DAX fails to close above 12374, we will look for a move back down to 12198. Any break below this level however could see the DAX sell-off sharply into 12000 this week.

 

US

SP500 – 3005 ( +23 or +0.77% )

The S&P is once again flirting with all time highs. Is this a double top waiting to happen or are we about to break higher? We will be discussing this market in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 22:30 – Building Permits
Thu 04:00 – FOMC Interest Rate Announcement
Thu 04:30 – FOMC Press Conference
Thu 22:30 – Philly FED Manufacturing Index

For a move higher we would like to see the S&P hold above 3003. Should this occur we will look for a move to 3066. A strong break above this level however sets the stage for a move higher into 3140.

If we cannot hold above 3003, we could see this market retest 2985. A break of this level however may result in quick move down to 2960; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see a fast move down to 2941.

 

FOREX

AUD/USD – 0.6877 ( +29 or +0.42% )

The Aussie Dollar managed to slightly edge its way higher last week but like the AUS200, is also at a big inflection point. We will be discussing this market in more detail in the LIVE CHAT ROOM

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Thu 11:30 – Unemployment Numbers

For a move higher, we would first like to see the AUD hold above 0.6873. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6934, and if upside momentum remains very strong we cannot rule out a move to 0.7014 before a pause.

If the AUD cannot hold above 0.6873, we will look for a move lower into 0.6825. A break and close below this level however could see a sharp decline into 0.6762.

 

 

EUR/USD – 1.1072 ( +47 or +0.43% )

The Euro caught a lot of people off guard last week. We covered this in LIVE TV and were not surprised by the action as those who tuned in may have noticed.

For a move higher this week, we would like to see the EURO hold above 1.1033; followed by a break back above 1.1197. Should this occur, we could then see a move to 1.1249 before a pause. 

If the EURO cannot hold above 1.1033, we could see a move down into 1.0977 before a pause. If this market continues to sell-off, we could see a move down into 1.0902; however any break of this level may result in a sharp move down to 1.0814 before the week’s end.

 

GBP/USD – 1.2497 ( +214 or +1.74% )

Cable was very strong last week off the news that BoJo may be inching closer to a deal or soft-Brexit.  We will be discussing the significance of this exclusively in the MEMBER PORTAL.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 18:30 – CPI (annual)
Thu 18:30 – Retail Sales (monthly)
Thu 21:00 – BoE Interest Rate Announcement – LIVE TV

For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable close above 1.2622, followed by a retest of 1.2720 before a pause. Should this occur, we will look for a move to 1.2868; and if momentum is very strong, we could see a stronger move into 1.3035.

On the downside, a close below 1.2480 could see this market sell off strongly into 1.2350. Any further weakness below this level could see the Pound continue to slide down into 1.2297; and if momentum to the downside is very strong this week we cannot rule out a move to 1.2195.

 

USD/JPY – 106.92 ( +119 or +1.11% )

The $/YEN was also stronger last week as we saw this market continue to rally for the second straight week.

NOTE: Monday is a public holiday in Japan (Respect for the Aged day)

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 12:30 – BoJ Interest Rate Announcement

For a move to the upside we must now see this market close above 108.31, on its way to retesting 109.21 before a pause. A strong break and close above this level could then see the $/YEN rally into 109.94, and if momentum is very strong we could see moves to 110.31 and 110.78.

If we cannot close above 108.31, we could see a fast move lower into 107.75. A break below this level may result in a retest of 107.36 and this is where things get very interesting. A break below this level could mean a very sharp move down to 106.52.

 

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 1488 ( -17 or -0.99% )

Gold continues to struggle with the overhead resistance we first mentioned a month ago. Can it recover this week? We will be discussing this in the LIVE CHAT ROOM.

For a continued move higher we must now see this market close above 1505. Should this occur, we will look for a move to 1526 ; and if momentum remains very strong, a strong break above this level could see Gold rally quickly into 1540 and 1552.

If Gold cannot close above 1505, we will look for a move back down into 1480. A strong break and close below this level could send this market lower into 1470, and if momentum is strong to the downside we cannot rule out a move lower into 1450.

 

 

 

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