This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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ASX – 5740 ( -36 or -0.62% )
The ASX has been consolidating its big Christmas rally and is now at some key levels.
VOLATILITY ALERT: Unemployment numbers on Thursday.
For a continued move higher we would like to see the ASX hold above 5705, followed by a break above 5746. A strong break through this level could see the ASX move into 5777, and should we close strongly above this 5777 we will look for a move to 5823. If momentum remains strong our upside target of 5875 cannot be ruled out.
On the downside, a break below 5704 could lead to a strong move down to 5589. Should the ASX fail to hold this level we could see further pressure to the downside with a move to 5521 and 5504 respectively.
DAX – 11617 ( +18 or +0.16% )
Like the ASX the DAX too has been consolidating its big move in December. Will we see a breakout this week? We will be discussing potential breakout moves in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
VOLATILITY ALERT: ZEW Economic Sentiment on Tuesday, ECB Interest Rate on Thursday followed by Press Conference.
For a continued move to the upside we must see the DAX hold firmly above 11592. A close above this level may likely see the DAX push into the key 11755 – 11790 area. Should we break through these levels, we may see another leg higher into 11875, and a break and close above this level could see a very strong move to 12054.
If we fail to hold above 11592, we will look for a move back down to 11340. Below this, the DAX is at risk of selling off back down to 11050.
SP500 – 2277 ( +0.5 or +0.02% )
The S&P has been sideways for 4 weeks now and we are anticipating a breakout very soon.
VOLATILITY ALERT: CPI on Wednesday, Donald Trump inauguration on Friday.
For a move higher we would like to see a the S&P hold above 2270. Should this occur we will look for a move to 2292. A strong break and close above this level could see the S&P at 2312 by the end of the week.
If we cannot hold above 2270, we may likely see a move down to 2256. A break and close below this level could see the S&P retrace down into 2234, and should momentum on the downside remain strong 2212 is the next level lower we are watching.
AUD/USD – 0.7500 ( +205 or +2.81% )
The AUD/USD has put it in one of its best week’s to the upside in a long time. We will be discussing this market in more detail in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
VOLATILITY ALERT: Unemployment numbers on Thursday.
For a move higher we would like to see the AUD hold above 0.7447 and ideally 0.7489. If this occurs we could see a quick move to 0.7561 before a pause. If momentum remains strong we will look for a move into 0.7617.
If we cannot hold above 0.7447, we will look for a move all the way back down to 0.7364. If momentum remains strong to the downside, a move into 0.7282 cannot be ruled out.
EUR/USD – 1.0639 ( +108 or +1.03% )
The EURO has been very quiet and out of the news. We think this will change very quickly as 2017 may prove to be a very telling year for the EURO.
VOLATILITY ALERT: German ZEW Economic Sentiment on Tuesday, Interest Rate on Thursday followed by Press Conference.
LIVE TV: We will be covering and trading the ECB Press Conference LIVE, beginning 11:30pm Thursday AEDT in our MEMBER PORTAL.
For a sustained move higher we would now like to see this market hold above 1.0631. If we can hold above this level we will look for a move back into 1.0738, and should momentum remain strong we will be watching the key area between 1.0977 – 1.1000.
If we cannot close above 1.0738, we could see continued chop back and forth around the 1.0631 level. However should we remain below this level, our next level down is 1.0525. A strong break below that could see 1.0462 very quickly, and if momentum is strong we cannot rule out a move to 1.0424.
GBP/USD – 1.2196 ( -87 or -0.71% )
This year will also be a very interesting year for the GBP as we see the Brexit fiasco unfold even further. We have already begun to discuss this in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
VOLATILITY ALERT: CPI on Tuesday, PM May talk on Brexit and Unemployment numbers on Wednesday, Retail Sales on Friday.
For a move to the upside to begin, we would like to see a strong break and close above 1.2297. If the move higher follows through we could see a retest of 1.2480. A strong break and close above this level should see a retest of 1.2622, and if momentum remains strong a move to 1.2720 becomes very possible.
On the downside, we are watching two key areas at 1.2100, 1.2074 and further below between 1.1896 -1.1880.
USD/JPY – 114.50 ( -243 or -2.08% )
The $/YEN is now at some very key short term levels.
For a continued move to the upside we would like to see this market hold above 113.87. Should this occur we will look for a move back up into 115.54. A break above this level could see a strong move into 116.08, and if momentum to the upside remains strong we will look for a move to 117.23.
If we cannot hold above 113.87, this market is at risk of breaking much lower. A strong break and close through 113.87 may likely result in a retest of 112.87 very quickly, and a break below this level could see a sharp move down into 111.73. Should the selling pressure continue a move back down to 111.09 is possible.
GOLD – 1197 ( +25 or +2.13% )
GOLD has been bouncing back and forth between our levels perfectly over the past 12 months. This week we are again approaching key levels.
For a continued move higher we would like to see 1187 hold as support, followed by a break and close through 1206. This was one of the key levels of 2016. Should we see a strong break and close through this level we may see further upside into 1222.
If Gold cannot hold above 1187, we will look for a move back down to 1181. A strong break and close below this level we could see Gold trade back down to 1170; and additional breaks lower could see this market trade lower into 1160 by week’s end.
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