Trade View Weekly Market Brief 15 Oct 2018

Market Brief – Monday 15th October 2018

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX – 5837 ( -313 or -5.09% )

One of the hardest hit indices last week was the ASX falling over 5% and like other indices- the question now is will we see a bottom this week?

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Thu 11:30 – Unemployment Rate

For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX hold above 5823 followed by a retest of 5930. A strong close above 5930 could see a move back up into 5985 , and if momentum to the upside is very strong we cannot rule out a strong reversal into 6070.

If the ASX cannot hold above 5823, we will look for a move back down to 5777 and 5746 before a pause. A strong break and close below this level however could see the ASX sell off into 5671, and if downside momentum is very strong we could see a sharp move down to 5582.

 

EUROPE

DAX – 11572 ( -527 or -4.36% )

The DAX has broken the key technical level at 11875 and this week we will look to see if the market can settle at our key level of 11519. We will be discussing this market in more detail in the MEMBER PORTAL this week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 03:30 – German Buba President Weidmann Speaks

For a continued move to the upside we must see the DAX close strongly above the 11755 – 11790 area. Should this occur, we will look for a retest 11875. If momentum is very strong, a break and close above this level could see another push higher into 12054.

If the DAX fails to close above 11755, we will look for a move back down to 11362 before a potential pause. If this market continues to sell-off,  a very strong move down into 11050 cannot be ruled out.

 

US

SP500 – 2769 ( -121 or -4.19% )

The S&P was sold aggressively last week following a run on tech stocks. We will continue to discuss the implications of this in the LIVE CHAT ROOM.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 23:30 – Retail Sales
Wed 23:30 – Building Permits
Wed 23:30 – Housing Starts
Thu 05:00 – FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thu 23:30 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

For a move higher we would like to see the S&P hold above 2760. Should this occur we could see another retest of 2785, and if momentum remains strong to the upside we cannot rule out a moves to 2808 and 2838.

If we cannot hold above 2760, we could see this market continue to sell-off into 2736 before another pause. A break of this level however may result in quick move down to 2704; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see a move down into 2680 and 2660.

 

FOREX

AUD/USD – 0.7116 ( +66 or +0.94% )

The Aussie dollar continues to flirt with the big 70c level having found some buyers last last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Thu 11:30 – Unemployment Rate

For a move higher we would first like to see the AUD hold above0.7113. Should this occur we will look for a move into 0.7197, and if upside momentum remains strong we will look for 0.7229 – 0.7236 before a pause.

If the AUD breaks back below 0.7014, we may likely see a move back down into 0.6997. A strong break below 0.6997 could see us move back down into 0.6958 and 0.6934. Should the move to the downside remain very strong we will look for a retest of 0.6830.

 

EUR/USD – 1.1557 ( +38 or +0.33% )

The Euro has made a short-term swing low but failed on Friday to break about our key 1.1613 level. We will be discussing this in more detail in the LIVE CHAT ROOM.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu DAY – EU Economic Summit

For a sustained move higher we would like to see the EURO close and hold above 1.1613 this week. Should this occur we could see a strong move into 1.1738 before another pause. A strong break above 1.1738 could result in a fast move to 1.1822.

If the EURO cannot close above 1.1613, we could see another retest of 1.1496. A break below this could be followed by another quick move into 1.1453; and should momentum remain strong we cannot rule out a move to 1.1347.

 

GBP/USD – 1.3152 ( +38 or +0.29% )

Like the Euro the Pound also closed 38 points higher last week and remains volatile going into yet another important week for Brexit.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 19:30 – Unemployment Rate
Wed 19:30 – CPI (annual)
Sat 02:30 – BoE Governor Carney Speaks

For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable remain above 1.3035, followed by a retest of 1.3161 before a pause. Should this occur we will look for a move to 1.3191 and 1.3277; and if momentum is very strong we could see a re-test of last week’s highs into 1.3386.

On the downside, should we break and close strongly below 1.2868, there is every chance we see a move lower into 1.2720. Should this level break however we could see a fast move down into 1.2622.

 

USD/JPY – 112.21 ( -152 or -1.34% )

The $/YEN struggled last week with continued selling pressure into the week’s close.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 14:00 – BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks
Fri 17:30 – BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks

For a move to the upside we must now see this market hold above 111.73. Should this occur we will look for a test of 112.68 before another pause. However a strong break and close above this level could see the YEN rally strongly into 113.87.

If we cannot hold above 111.73, we are likely to see a retest of 111.09. A strong break and close below this level could result in a move back down to 110.45, and if momentum to the downside is very strong we may see a very sharp move down into 109.94.

 

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 1218 ( +16 or +1.33% )

GOLD has finally broken out to the upside amidst strong selling in global equities.

For a move higher we would like to see this market close above 1222 on its way to re-testing 1238. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 1247, and if momentum is very strong we could see a move into 1260 before a pause.

If Gold cannot close above 1222, we could see another decline into 1216. Any subsequent breaks of this level however may result in further downside into 1206, and if momentum to the downside remains very strong we cannot rule out a move back down into 1187.

 

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