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Market Brief – Monday 15th July 2019

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX – 6672 (-74 or -1.1%)

The ASX is consolidating this month’s gains. Can it break to new multi-year highs again this week? We will be discussing this in the MEMBER PORTAL.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 11:30 – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Thu 11:30 – Unemployment Rate

For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX close above 6720. Should this occur we will look for a test of 6804. A strong break of this level however could see the ASX rally quickly to 6850, and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 7011.

If the ASX cannot close above 6720, we will look for a retest of 6682 before a move back down to 6650. A strong break and close below this level however could see the ASX move lower into 6544 before a pause; and if downside momentum is very strong, we could see a move down to 6435.

 

EUROPE

DAX – 12326 (-251 or -2%)

The DAX sold off every day last week and the big question this week is can the market continue lower with this sustained selling pressure?

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 19:00 – German ZEW Economic Sentiment

For a continued move to the upside we must see the DAX close above 12384. Should this occur we will look for a move off 12566 into 12714. If momentum is very strong, we could see a fast move  to 12921.

If the DAX fails to close above 12384, we will look for a move back down to 12198. Any break below this level however could see the DAX sell-off sharply into 12000 this week.

 

US

SP500 – 3010 (+23 or +0.77%)

The S&P continues to make all times highs closing above 3000 for the week for the first time. We will be discussing this market in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 22:30 – Retail Sales (monthly)
Wed 03:00 – FED Chair Powell Speaks
Wed 22:30 – Building Permits
Thu 22:30 – Philly FED Manufacturing Index
Sat 00:00 – Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

For a move higher we would like to see the S&P hold above 3003. Should this occur we will look for a move to 3066. A strong break above this level however sets the stage for a move higher into 3140.

If we cannot hold above 3003, we could see this market retest 2985. A break of this level however may result in quick move down to 2960; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see a fast move down to 2941.

 

 

FOREX

AUD/USD – 0.7021 (+43 or +0.62%)

The Aussie Dollar is doing everything it can to hold above 70c. This is a key level as we have discussed many times.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 11:30 – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Thu 11:30 – Unemployment Rate

For a move higher, we would first like to see the AUD hold above 0.7014. Should this occur we will look for a move into 0.7113, and if upside momentum remains very strong we cannot rule out a move to 0.7197 – 0.7236 before a pause.

If the AUD cannot hold above 0.7014, we will look for a move lower into 6958. A break and close below this level however could see a sharp decline into 0.6934; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we cannot rule out a move into 0.6830.

 

 

EUR/USD – 1.1270 (+45 or +0.4%)

The Euro sold off early in the week but managed to recover by week’s close with buyers supporting this market at a key level. We will be covering this market exclusively in the MEMBER PORTAL

For a move higher we would like to see the EURO hold above 1.1249. Should this occur we could see a retest into 1.1335 and any breaks above this level may mean a quick move into 1.1453 before a pause. A strong close above this level however could see the EURO rally strong into 1.1496 by the week’s end.

 If the EURO cannot hold above 1.1249, we could see a move down into 1.1201 before a pause. A strong break of this level may result in a move into, however any weakness below this level could see a sharp drop into 1.1117 before the week’s end.

 

 

GBP/USD – 1.2576 (+57 or +0.46%)

Cable is also trying to find buyers at the very key level near 1.2520 which we discussed last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 18:30 – Unemployment Rate
Wed 18:30 – CPI (annual)
Thu 18:30 – Retail Sales (monthly), BoE Credit Conditions Survey
Fri 18:30 – Public Sector Net Borrowing

For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable close above 1.2622, followed by a retest of 1.2720 before a pause. Should this occur we will look for a move to 1.2868; and if momentum is very strong, we could see a stronger move into 1.3035.

On the downside, a close below 1.2480 could see this market sell off strongly into 1.2350. Any further weakness below this level could see the Pound continue to slide down into 1.2297; and if momentum to the downside is very strong this week we cannot rule out a move to 1.2195.

 

 

USD/JPY – 107.89 (-58 or -0.53%)

The $/YEN continues its short squeeze as discussed last week and this week is yet another test for the bulls.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

The $/YEN is in a choppy sideways range now and sellers may find this market interesting on their watchlists…
NOTE: Monday is a public holiday in Japan (Marine Day)

For a move to the upside we must now see this market close above 108.31, on its way to retesting 109.21 before a pause. A strong break and close above this level could then see the $/YEN rally into 109.94, and if momentum is very strong we could see moves to 110.31 and 110.78.

If we cannot close above 108.31, we could see a fast move lower into 107.75. A break below this level may result in a retest of 107.36 and this is where things get very interesting. A break below this level could mean a very sharp move down to 106.52.

 

 

 

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 1415 (+17 or +1.22%)

Like the week prior, Gold continues to consolidate and as such our levels remain unchanged.

For a continued move higher we must now see this market close above 1416. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 1433; and if momentum remains very strong, a strong break above this level could see Gold rally quickly into 1450.

If Gold cannot close above 1416, we will look for a move back down into 1402. A strong break and close below this level however could send this market lower into 1393, and if momentum is strong to the downside we cannot rule out a move lower into 1374.

 

 

 

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The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, holding or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View Investments accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.

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