This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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ASX – 6253 (+43 or +0.69%)
Like other markets the ASX remains in a sideways range but is testing the upper end; and this week will be very important for this market going into Easter.
NOTE: Friday is a public holiday around the world (Good Friday)
Tue 11:30 – Monetary Policy Minutes
Thu 11:30 – Unemployment Rate
For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX hold above 6180 on its way to retest 6206. Should this occur we will look for a move into 6276, and if momentum to the upside is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 6345.
If the ASX cannot hold above 6180, we will look for a move back down to 6140 for strong support. A strong break and close below this level however could see the ASX retest 6070, and if downside momentum is very strong we could see a move down to 5985.
DAX – 12015 (+14 or +0.12%)
The DAX finished off the week where it started but is again poised to break through key resistance this week. We will be discussing the importance of this move in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.
Tue 19:00 – German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Thu 17:30 – German Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI
For a continued move to the upside we must see the DAX close above 12044. Should this occur we will look for a move into 12115 before a pause. This is a very big level and if the DAX can break strongly above this, we will look for a move into 12198 and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a blow off move to 12384.
If the DAX fails to close above 12044, we will look for a move back down to 11875. Any break below this level however could see the DAX sell-off sharply into 11755, and if momentum is very strong to the downside we could see a sharp move down to 11519.
SP500 – 2907 (+14 or +0.48%)
Another week goes by and the S&P continues its grind towards all-time highs. We are now less than 35 points away from blue sky. We will be discussing what this week should look like in the MEMBER PORTAL as it happens.
Thu 22:30 – Retail Sales
For a move higher we would like to see the S&P hold above 2902. Should this occur we will look for a move into 2922 before a pause. A strong break below this level however sets the stage for a move to 2941, and any break of this level could see a fast move to 2950 – 2960.
If we cannot hold above 2902, we could see this market sell-off into 2870 and then 2838 before another pause. A break of this level however may result in quick move down to 2808; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see a move down into 2785.
AUD/USD – 0.7172 (+65 or +0.91%)
The Aussie dollar has held the long term 0.70c level now for 2 months so the question remains: Can we rally higher into 7500?.
Tue 11:30 – Monetary Policy Minutes
Thu 11:30 – Unemployment Rate
For a move higher, we would first like to see the AUD hold above 0.7113. Should this occur we will look for a move into 0.7197, and if upside momentum remains strong we will look for 0.7229 – 0.7236 before a pause.
If the AUD cannot hold above 0.7113, we will look for a move lower into 0.7014. A break and close below this level however could see a sharp decline into 0.6997. Any further breaks to the downside could then see the AUD quickly trade at 0.6958 and 0.6934; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we cannot rule out a move into 0.6830.
EUR/USD – 1.1298 (+83 or +0.74%)
The Euro has finally bounced off lows; and even if it doesn’t appear significant it is worth watching closely now. We will be covering this in detail in the MEMBER PORTAL.
Thu 18:00 – Flash Services PMI, Flash Manufacturing PMI
For a move higher we would like to see the EURO hold above 1.1249 early in the week. Should this occur we could see a retest into 1.1335 and any breaks above this level may mean a quick move into 1.1453 before a pause. A strong close above this level however could see the EURO rally strong into 1.1496 by the week’s end.
If the EURO cannot hold above 1.1249, we could see a fast move down into 1.1201 before a pause. A strong break of this level may result in a move into, however any weakness below this level could see a sharp drop into 1.1117 before the week’s end.
GBP/USD – 1.3071 (+38 or +0.29%)
Cable is headed for a big breakout one way or another and all eyes are on this market once again this week. GET READY.
Tue 18:30 – Unemployment Rate
Wed 18:30 – CPI (annual)
Thu 18:30 – Retail Sales, BoE Credit Conditions Survey
For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable hold above 1.3035 and break through 1.3161 this week. Should this occur we will look for a move to 1.3191 and 1.3277; and if momentum is very strong we could see a re-test of last week’s highs into 1.3386.
On the downside, if we cannot hold above 1.3035 we will look for a move back down to 1.2868. A break below this level however could see this market retest the important 1.2720 level; and if momentum to the downside is strong we cannot rule out a bigger move down to 1.2622.
USD/JPY – 112.00 (+30 or +0.27%)
The YEN is testing yearly highs now and the question remains this week- will inflows continue into the $US?
For a move to the upside we must now see this market hold above 111.73. Should this occur we could see a strong move into 112.22. A strong break and close above this level could then see the $/YEN rally into 112.68, and if momentum is extremely strong to the upside 113.27 cannot be ruled out.
If we cannot hold above 111.73, we will look for another quick retest of 111.09. A break below this level however may result in a fast move down to 110.67, and if the downside remains very strong we cannot rule out a sell-off into 109.94.
GOLD – 1290 (-1 or -0.08%)
Gold is still hovering around a key area with pressure mounting on the bulls.
For a continued move higher we must now see this market close and hold above 1294. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 1303. A strong close above this level could see further upside into 1313; and if momentum remains very strong, we could see a big push into 1322 and 1333.
If Gold cannot hold above 1294, we will look for a move back down into 1285. A strong break and close below this level however takes us down into the key 1276 – 1278 area. Should this level break, we could see a strong move down to 1260.
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