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Market Brief – Monday 14th October 2019

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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UPCOMING EVENTS

OCTOBER 2019 SYSTEMS BUILDING WORKSHOP

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INDICES

 AUSTRALASIA

 ASX – 6545 ( +81 or +1.23%)

The ASX continued its recovery last week as we once again approach important resistance. We will be discussing this in the MEMBER PORTAL this week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Wed 11:30 – Unemployment Rate

For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX hold above 6635. Should this occur, we will look for a test of 6682. If momentum to the upside continues we could see a retest of 6804, and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out rule out a move to 6850.

If the ASX cannot hold above 6635, we will look for a move back down to 6544. A strong break and close below this level however could see the ASX retest 6500 before a pause; and if downside momentum is very strong, we could see a move down to 6435.

 

 

EUROPE

DAX – 12467 (  +403 or +3.34% )

The DAX was capped off an impressive recovery last week with a big move higher on Friday following continued positive EU/UK Brexit talks.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 20:00 – German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Thu 04:00 – German Buba President Weidmann Speaks

 

For a continued move to the upside we must see the DAX hold above 12374. Should this occur, we will look for a move off 12566 into 12714. If momentum is very strong, we could see a fast move  to 12921.

If the DAX fails to close above 12374, we will look for a move back down to 12198. Any break below this level however could see the DAX sell-off sharply into 12000 this week.

 

 

US

SP500 – 2970 ( +19 or +0.64% )

The S&P managed to close the week slightly higher as we head into earnings seasons. We will be discussing this market in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 23:30 – Retail Sales (monthly)
Thu 23:30 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Building Permits
Fri 00:15 – Industrial Production (monthly)

For a move higher we would like to see the S&P hold above 2960. Should this occur, we will look for a move to 2985. A strong break above this level however could see the S&P trade above 3003, and if momentum is very strong, we may see a big move into 3066.

If we cannot hold above 2960, we could see this market retest 2941. A break of this level however may result in quick move down to 2902; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see a fast move down to 2885.

FOREX

AUD/USD – 0.6794 ( +29 or +0.43% )

The Aussie Dollar was also marginally higher following two weeks of consolidation; with a breakout now underway. We will be discussing this market in more detail in the LIVE CHAT ROOM

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – NAB Business Confidence
Wed 10:30 – Westpac Consumer Sentiment

For a move higher, we would first like to see the AUD hold above 0.6762. Should this occur, we will look for a retest of of 0.6875, and if upside momentum remains very strong, we may see a push higher into 0.6934 before a pause.

If the AUD cannot hold above 0.6762, we will look for a retest of 0.6706. A break and close below this level sets the stage for a larger move down to 0.6598; and if momentum to the downside is very strong, 0.6457 cannot be ruled out.

 

 

EUR/USD – 1.1035 ( +57 or +0.52% )

The Euro managed to close last week higher back above the all-important 1.1000 level. We will be discussing the significance of this exclusively in the MEMBER PORTAL.

For a move higher this week, we would like to see the EURO hold above 1.1033; followed by a break back above 1.1197. Should this occur, we cannot rule out a move to 1.1249 if momentum remains strong.

If the EURO cannot hold above 1.1033, we could see a move back down into 1.0977. If this market continues to sell-off, we could see a sharp move down into 1.0902 and 1.0814 by the week’s end.

GBP/USD – 1.2647 ( +314 or +2.55% )

Cable posted its strongest week all year with Brexit talks moving along. With government set to return this week, will we see some surprises? We will be discussing the significance of this exclusively in the MEMBER PORTAL.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 15:10 – BoE Governor Carney Speaks
Thu 19:30 – GDP (monthly), Manufacturing Production (monthly)
Thu 20:20 – BoE Governor Carney Speaks

For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable close above 1.2720, followed by a retest of 1.2868 before a pause. Should this occur we will look for a move to 1.3035 and 1.3161; and if momentum is very strong we could see a re-test of 1.3191.

On the downside, should we fail to close above 1.2720, we will be watching the key level at 1.2622 very closely. A strong break below this level however sets this market up for a bigger move down into 1.2480.

 

USD/JPY – 108.40 ( +150 or +1.4% )

The $/YEN also closed higher following another strong finish to the end of the week; but we are at key resistance now.

NOTE: Monday is a public holiday in Japan (Health-Sports day)

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – BoJ Governor Kuroda speaks

For a move to the upside we must now see this market hold above 108.31, on its way to retesting 109.21 before a pause. A strong break and close above this level could then see the $/YEN rally into 109.94, and if momentum is very strong we could see moves to 110.31 and 110.78.

If we cannot hold above 108.31, we could see a fast move lower into 107.75. A break below this level may result in a retest of 107.36 and this is where things get very interesting. A break below this level could mean a very sharp move down to 106.52.

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 1488 ( -16 or -1.06% )

Gold was steady last week as it remains in its consolidation phase. We are now on alert for a breakout.

For a continued move higher we must now see this market close above 1505. Should this occur, we will look for a move to 1526 ; and if momentum remains very strong, a strong break above this level could see Gold rally quickly into 1540 and 1552.

If Gold cannot close above 1505, we will look for a move back down into 1480. A strong break and close below this level could send this market lower into 1470, and if momentum is strong to the downside we cannot rule out a move lower into 1450.

 

 

 

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The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, holding or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View Investments accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.

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