This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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ASX – 5774 ( +33 or +0.57% )
The ASX edged slightly higher last week and has again closed right at our key levels.
VOLATILITY ALERT: Unemployment Rate on Thursday.
For a continued move higher we would like to see the ASX hold above 5746, followed by a strong break and close above 5777. A break of this level could A strong break and close of 5777 may result in a retest of 5823, and if momentum is very strong this week we will could see a strong rally into 5875.
If the ASX cannot hold above 5705, we are likely to see a quick move down to 5690. A strong break and close below this level could see the ASX test 5606 and if momentum is strong we could easily see further losses down to 5589 this week.
DAX – 11951 ( -58 or -0.48% )
The DAX spent all of last week in a very tight sideways range. We will be discussing this market in more detail as to where it is likely headed in the MEMBER PORTAL this week.
VOLATILITY ALERT: German ZEW Sentiment on Tuesday.
For a continued move to the upside we must see the DAX break back above 12054. Should we see a strong break above this level, we will look for a move to 12198, and if momentum is strong we could see a push to 12381.
If the DAX fails to break above 12054, we will look for a move back down to 11871. A strong break below this level is likely to see a push further down into the 11788 – 11754 area; and if momentum is very strong to the downside this week a move to 11591 cannot be ruled out.
SP500 – 2371 ( -10 or -0.42% )
Last week’s stronger than expected NFP numbers weren’t enough to send this market higher through our key 2376 level. This week is FED week and we will be covering this market extensively on the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.
VOLATILITY ALERT: Monthly PPI on Tuesday, CPI, Retail Sales and FOMC on Wednesday, Building Permits on Thursday, UoM COnsumer Sentiment on Friday.
We will be covering the FED Announcement LIVE in Live TV.
For a move higher we would like to see a the S&P break above above our key 2376 level followed by a retest of 2386 level. Should we break strongly through 2386, we will look for a retest of 2400, and if momentum is very strong our next level higher comes in at 2417.
If we cannot break above 2386, we will look for a move back down to the very important 2350 level. A strong break below this level may see this market test 2334.
AUD/USD – 0.7539 ( -55 or -0.72% )
The Aussie dollar continued its sell-off last week. The question remains? Do we move below 75.00 or go higher from here? We will be discussing this in the MEMBER PORTAL.
VOLATILITY ALERT: Unemployment Rate on Thursday.
For a move higher we would like to see this market close above 0.7561. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 0.7616. If momentum is strong, a break above this level is likely to see a full fade of Thursday’s down day back up into 0.7675.
On the downside, a failure to close above 0.7561 could see the AUD head sharply lower into 0.7487 before a pause. But if momentum is very strong to downside a break of this level could see this market head to 0.7446.
EUR/USD – 1.0671 ( +52 or +0.49% )
Friday saw the EURO put in a very strong rally into the close. These markets may be setting up for very big moves as discussed in last week’s LIVE TV, so it may be worthwhile watching.
VOLATILITY ALERT: German ZEW Economic Sentiment on Tuesday.
For a sustained move higher we would like to see this market hold above 1.0631. If we can hold above this level we will look for a move back into 1.0738, and should momentum remain strong we will be watching the key area between 1.0977 – 1.1000.
If we cannot hold above 1.0631, we are likely to see a retest of 1.0525. A strong break below that could see 1.0462 very quickly, and if momentum is strong we cannot rule out a move to 1.0424.
GBP/USD – 1.2163 ( -128 or -1.04% )
The GBP lost further ground to other currencies last week as Brexit talk remains in limbo. As we mentioned last week Cable appears to be setting up for a very large move, which we will be discussing in the MEMBER PORTAL this week.
VOLATILITY ALERT: Unemployment rate on Wednesday, Interest Rate Announcement on Thursday.
We will be covering the BoE Interest Rate Announcement LIVE in Live TV.
For a move to the upside we would like to this market break above 1.2297. A strong break and close above this level should see a retest of 1.2384. Should we break this level we could see 1.2480 quickly, and if momentum remains strong a move to 1.2622 is possible.
Further breaks to the downside this week may result in retests of 1.2100. A break of this level may result if a very swift and sharp move lower into 1.2000.
USD/JPY – 114.80 ( +79 or +0.69% )
The $/YEN had begun its move to the upside before Friday’s NFP number saw a sharp reversal into the close. Was this move strong enough for a reversal lower? We will be discussing this in more detail in the MEMBER PORTAL this week.
VOLATILITY ALERT: BoJ Interest Rate Announcement on Thursday.
For a continued move to the upside we must first see this market hold above 114.52. Should this occur we will look for a retest of retest 115.54. A break above this level may see the $/YEN move higher into 116.08, and if momentum is very strong we will look for a move to 117.23.
If we cannot hold above 114.52 we will look for a move back down into 113.86. A break below this level is likely to result in a retest of 112.39; and should we break below that level we will look for a move to 111.73.
GOLD – 1204 ( -30 or -2.43% )
For the second week straight GOLD has again found support on Friday, but failed to close above our key level at 1206.
For a continued move higher we want to see this market close above 1206. Should this occur we will look for a move higher back up to 1222. A break of this level could see GOLD rally much higher back up into 1247.
If Gold cannot close above 1206, we will look for a move lower into the very important 1187-1181 area. Should we break below these levels, we are likely to see GOLD trade lower into 1170.
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