Weekly Market Brief - with Text_Blog2

Market Brief – Monday 12th October 2015

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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SOME OF OUR LEVELS REACHED IN LAST WEEK’S MARKET BRIEF

#ASX closed at 5265 which was only 5 points below our level of 5270.

#SPX closed at 2014 which was only 4 points above our level of 2010.

#AUDUSD closed at 7331 which was only 1 point above our level of 7330.

#GBPUSD reached a high of 15383 which was only 21 points higher than our level of 15364

AUSTRALASIA

ASX – 5265 ( + 154 or + 3.01% )

The ASX continued its move higher pushing past 5150 early in the week, this level then became support before another strong move higher.

For the upmove to continue this week we would like to see a strong break and close past 5319 early in the week. Once this occurs we could see 5366. Once this level is broken then we could see the ASX push up towards 5418 and finally settling near the area between 5441 – 62.

If the ASX cannot get past 5319 and a down move starts then a break through 5217 could see 5150 very quickly. If 5150 cannot hold up then we would like to see a strong long down bar break reaching 5095 and finally 5050. If the downward momentum is strong then we could see the ASX near 4976 again.

EUROPE

DAX – 10113 ( + 425 or + 4.39% )

Last week the DAX is a perfect example of how the markets work.

1 – Bade News – Markets go down

2 – More Bad News – Markets go down

3 – Even More Bad News – Markets are not sure what to do, so they go sideways

Markets are designed for growth, if all the Bad News is on the table then their is only one place for it to go. UP

For the upmove to continue into this week we would like to see 10145 broken early reaching 10258. Once this level is broken we could see 10319. If the momentum is strong then a possible extension towards 10389 could occur which would complete the range set back in July.

If the down move restarts then we would like to see a strong long down bar break past the area between 10075 – 33. Once this occurs the DAX could get down to 9896 quickly. If the downward momentum continues then look out for 9829 and finally 9742.

US

S&P – 2014 ( + 62 or + 3.18% )

What a great response from our clients last week in relation to our analogy.

Therefore here it is again, but just be careful that it doesn’t happen the other way now??

its’ SHAKE ‘N’ BAKE Time

Something tells me that Ricky Bobby might be Janet Yellen in disguise?

SHAKE: give the shorts (LONGS) a little bite before they go all in

BAKE: cook them till their done

then slingshot the markets back up (DOWN) past their hurt levels.

For the upward move to restart we would like to see an early break past 2024 and 2033 before pushing towards the area between 2046 – 50. This level will then need to be broken with a long up bar before reaching 2076.

If the S&P fails to stay above 2010 and we see a long down bar break and close past it early in the week then 1990 and 1981 could be quickly seen. Once these levels are broken then we are back down near the area between 1957 – 47.

FOREX

AUD.USD – 7331  ( + 282 or + 4.00% )

The AUD just went POP.

If the AUD is to continue its strong move higher then we would like to see an early move towards 7407. Once this level is broken then 7494 will come into play, as if it too is broken then 7635 is the next level.

If the fact that the AUD has completed its range and we see a move lower then an early break back down to 7263 could be the start. If 7263 is broken the 7230 could be a bystander as the AUD moves towards 7177 and 7116 quickly. A strong break past 7116 will be discussed in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.

EUR.USD – 11358 ( + 149 or + 1.33% )

The EURO rises ever so cautiously.

If the EUR continues higher we would like to see an early long up bar break and close past 11395 before pushing towards 11427 and 11471. Once this occurs then we could see a strong rally into 11666.

If the EUR cannot break past 11395 then a down move could be seen if 11315 is broken. Once this occurs then we could see 11166 and finally 11038.

GBP.USD – 15317 ( + 141 or + 0.93% )

The GBP moved higher with the rest of the majors against the USD.

For the GBP to continue its run higher we would like to see an early break through 15366. Once this level is broken we could see the GBP near 15456 quickly. We then need to see a long up bar break through this level before reaching 15533. If the momentum stays strong then we could see the GBP reach 15590 which would complete the range.

For the down move to restart then 15366 needs to become a solid level of resistance followed y a leg down through 15280. This could then see 15248 which could lead the pair back down to 15140.

USD.JPY – 12020 (  + 32 or + 0.27% )

Something tells me we have seen this pattern before?

As the USD.JPY has not moved much, our comments remain the same:

Watch for the break. The two levels we are watching are: 12151 Upside, 11867 Downside.

ONCE AGAIN – Listen to and Watch the Markets, not the media.

For the USD to restart its move higher we would like to see a strong break and close past

12064 before moving towards 12151. Once this occurs then the levels we will be watching are: 12184, 12225, 12275 and 12332

For this pair to continue lower we would like to see 12064 continue to be a strong level of resistance. This could then lead to 11977 and back down to 11926 before reaching 11867 and then making its final decision. A strong break past 11867 will be discussed in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 1156 ( + 18 or + 1.58% )

“It looks like we need a market meltdown for GOLD to rally. (Safe haven Play)”

I will keep this comment here until it is not valid anymore.

The question now is “What does a Market Meltdown look like?

Does it mean that the FED will go into QE infinity which will eventually mean they lose control?

For GOLD to move higher again we would like to see an early strong break and close past the area between 1161 – 67. Once this occurs then GOLD could reach 1178 very quickly. If the upward momentum is strong we could see GOLD near 1187 and 1197 with the possibility of seeing a 1200 print once again.

For GOLD to reverse and come back down we would like to see the area between 1161 – 67 become difficult to break. If this is the case then a leg back down past 1149 could see 1141 and 1134 quickly before pushing past 1123 and 1111 reaching 1103.

 

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