Trade View Market Brief - 12th March 2018

Market Brief – Monday 12th March 2018

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX – 6008 ( +91 or +1.54% )

The ASX staged a recovery last week following the RBA’s decision to again leave rates on hold. We will be discussing this in more detail in the MEMBER PORTAL.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – NAB Business Confidence

For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX hold above 5985. Should this occur we will look for a move to 6070, and if momentum is very strong we could see a move back up into 6140.

If the ASX cannot close above 5985, we will look for a move back down to 5921. A strong break and close below this level could see the ASX test 5823, and if momentum is strong we could quickly see a further move down to 5777.

 

EUROPE

DAX – 12372 ( +369 or +3.07% )

The DAX continues to find buyers however this market is now approaching some very key levels.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 19:00 – ECB President Draghi Speaks
Fri 21:00 – Final CPI (annual)

For a continued move to the upside we must now see the DAX close above 12384. Should this occur we will look for a move back up to 12566. A strong break of this level could then see the DAX rally quickly to 12714.

If the DAX fails to close above 12384, we will look for a move back down to 12115. Below this we could see a move into 11875, and should the DAX continue to sell off we cannot rule out a move into key support between 11790 – 11755.

 

US

SP500 – 2783 ( +94 or +3.50% )

Whilst lagging the NASDAQ, the S&P has managed to rally right into the big 2788 level. We will be discussing the impact of this in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 23:30 – CPI (monthly)
Wed 23:30 – Retail Sales (monthly)
Wed 23:30 – PPI (monthly)
Thu 23:30 – Empire State Manufacturing Index
Fri 23:30 – Building Permits
Sat 01:00 – Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

For a move higher we would like to see the S&P hold above 2736. Should this occur we will look for a move back up into 2808. A strong break and close above this level could see the S&P rally quickly into 2850, and if momentum remains strong to the upside we cannot rule out a moves to 2870.

If we cannot hold above 2736, we could see this market continue to sell-off into 2694 and 2688 before a pause. A break below this level however could mean this market retraces lower into 2660; and a complete reversal to the downside could see this market fall further into 2638.

 

FOREX

AUD/USD – 0.7845 ( +82 or +1.06% )

The Aussie Dollar has found support for the last two weeks, but will we see this market turn around this week? We will discuss this extensively in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – NAB Business Confidence

For a move higher we must now see this market hold above 0.7833, followed by a strong break and close above 0.7903. Should this occur we will look for this market to retest 0.7988; and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move back up to 0.8033.

If we cannot hold above 0.7833, we are likely to see a move lower into 0.7729. Should the downside momentum continue we could see 0.7662 quickly before another pause; and if selling pressure is strong a move into 0.7600 cannot be ruled out.

 

EUR/USD – 1.2305 ( -15 or -0.12% )

The EURO finished off the week where we started with the Italian Elections largely unresolved. We will be discussing this market in more detail in the LIVE CHAT ROOM.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 19:00 – ECB President Draghi Speaks
Fri 21:00 – Final CPI (annual)

For a sustained move higher we would like to see the EURO hold above 1.2266 followed by a strong break through 1.2360. Should this occur, we will then look for this market to test 1.2420; and if momentum is very strong we could see a push higher into 1.2520.

If the EURO cannot close above 1.2266, we could see a move back down 1.2165 before a pause. This is an important level and any subsequent strong break and close below this level may see the EURO sell-off further into 1.2042 this week.

 

GBP/USD – 1.3849 ( +51 or +0.37% )

The Pound was eeringly quiet last week and so we again remain on alert for a breakout.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 20:30 – Annual Budget Release

For a move to the upside we would like to see a strong break and close above 1.3875 A break above this level may result in moves into 1.4075 and 1.4194. Should momentum remain strong to the upside, we could see a move into 1.4223 by the week’s end.

If we cannot close above 1.3875 we could see a quick move down into 1.3743 – 1.3725 before a pause. A continued sell-off may see another move lower into 1.3683 and 1.3654, with a strong break below these levels meaning cable may trade down into 1.3534. If momentum continues to remain strong, we could see a sharp decline to 1.3277.

 

USD/JPY – 106.81 ( +110 or +1.04% )

The $/YEN has found its relief rally and we are watching this market closely to see what kind of bounce this is in the $/YEN. We will be discussing this market in more detail in the MEMBER PORTAL.

For a continued move to the upside we would now like to see the market hold above 106.30 followed by a close above 107.36. Should this occur we will then be looking for a quick move into 107.75. A strong break and close above 107.75 could then see a quick move into 108.31 before a pause. If momentum is very strong this week, we cannot rule out a move to 109.21 by the end of the week.

If however the USD/JPY cannot hold above 106.30 and fails at 105.79, a break below could see the USD/JPY trade quickly down to 104.97 before a potential pause. Should we continue to trade lower and see continued downside pressure on the USD/JPY- a sharp move to 103.99 is possible.

 

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 1323 ( +1 or +0.08% )

GOLD has also finished the week off where it started and the question now is- can this market hold support or are we to see a sharp move lower?

For a continued move higher we must now see this market break and close above 1333. Should this occur we will look for a move into 1355, and a close above this level could see further upside into 1365. If momentum remains very strong, a very strong move into 1374.

If Gold cannot close above 1333, we will look for a strong move back down into the key 1322 level. A strong break below this level could see GOLD sell off further into 1303, and if momentum is strong to the downside we could see a sharp move down into 1294.

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