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Market Brief – Monday 12th August 2019

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX – 6575 (-201 or -2.97%)

The ASX continues to sell-off following its brief stint at all time highs. We will be discussing this in the MEMBER PORTAL.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 11:30 – NAB Business Confidence
Wed 10:30 – Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Wed 11:30 – Wage Price Index (quarterly)
Thu 11:30 – Unemployment Rate

For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX hold above 6544. Should this occur, we will look for a test of 6635. If momentum to the upside continues we could see a retest of 6682, and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out rule out a move to 6804.

If the ASX cannot hold above 6544, we will look for a move back down to 6435. A strong break and close below this level however could see the ASX retest 6350 before a pause; and if downside momentum is very strong, we could see a move down to 6276.

 

EUROPE

DAX – 11733 (-176 or -1.48%)

The DAX managed to recover some of its losses but weakness across the board saw this index post its second consecutive week lower.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 19:00 – German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Wed 16:00 – German Prelim GDP (quarterly)

For a continued move to the upside we must see the DAX close strongly above the 11755 – 11790 area. Should this occur, we will look for a retest 11875. If momentum is very strong, a break and close above this level could see another push higher into 12054.

If the DAX fails to close above 11755, we will look for a move back down to 11362 before a potential pause. If this market continues to sell-off,  a very strong move down into 11050 cannot be ruled out.

 

US

SP500 – 2924 (-10 or -0.34%)

After a strong sell-off to start the week, the S&P managed to recover most of its losses despite finishing the week slightly down. We will again be discussing this market in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 22:30 – CPI (monthly)
Thu 22:30 – Retail Sales (monthly), Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
Fri 22:30 – Building Permits
Sat 00:00 – Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

For a move higher we would like to see the S&P close above 2960. Should this occur, we will look for a move to 2985. A strong break above this level however sets the stage for a move higher into 3003.

If we cannot close above 2960, we could see this market retest 2922. If momentum to the downside remains strong we may see sharp moves down into 2902 and 2870, and if the sellers continue their aggressive stance 2812 cannot be ruled out this week.

 

 

FOREX

AUD/USD – 0.6784 (-13 or -0.19%)

The Aussie Dollar finished off the week slightly lower than where it opened. We will be discussing the significance of this exclusively in the LIVE CHAT ROOM.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 11:30 – NAB Business Confidence
Wed 10:30 – Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Wed 11:30 – Wage Price Index (quarterly)
Thu 11:30 – Unemployment Rate

For a move higher, we would first like to see the AUD hold above 0.6762. Should this occur, we will look for a retest of of 0.6875, and if upside momentum remains very strong, we may see a push higher into 0.6934 before a pause.

If the AUD cannot hold above 0.6762, we will look for a retest of 0.6706. A break and close below this level sets the stage for a larger move down to 0.6598.

 

 

EUR/USD – 1.1200 (+95 or +0.86%)

The Euro managed to gain some strength amidst weakness in other major currencies. 

NOTE: Thursday is a public holiday in France and Italy (Assumption Day)

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 19:00 – German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Wed 16:00 – German Prelim GDP (quarterly)

For a move higher we would like to see the EURO hold above 1.1197. Should this occur we could see a retest into 1.1249 and any breaks above this level may mean a quick move into 1.1335 before a further pause. 

If the EURO cannot hold above 1.1197, we could see a bigger push down into 1.1033 before a pause. A strong break of this level may however result in a fast move down into 1.0977 before the week’s end.

 

 

GBP/USD – 1.2025 (-134 or -1.1%)

Cable is testing some very big areas and this is set to be a very big week for this market. We will be discussing the significance of this exclusively in the MEMBER PORTAL.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 18:30 – Average Earnings Index (quarterly)
Wed 18:30 – CPI (annual)
Thu 18:30 – Retail Sales (monthly)

For a continued move to the upside, we need to see Cable close above 1.2100. Should this occur we will love for a move back up into 1.2195, and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a strong push into 1.2297.

On the downside, if the Pound cannot close above 1.2100, we are likely to see a quick move down into 1.2000. A break below this level could see a fast move down to 1.1896, and below this we have a major level at 1.1706.

 

 

USD/JPY – 105.61 (-102 or -0.96%)

The $/YEN continued to sell off on the back of YEN strength as this market tests the flash crash low of January.

NOTE: Monday is a public holiday in Japan (Mountain Day)

For a move to the upside we must now see this market hold above 105.50, on its way to retesting 106.52 before a pause. A strong break and close above this level could then see the $/YEN rally into 107.25, and if momentum is very strong we could see moves to 107.75 and 108.31.

If we cannot hold above 105.50, we could see a fast move lower into 104.97. A break below this level may result in a very sharp move down to 103.99. Any further breaks to the downside could see the $/YEN end up at 103.21by the week’s end.

 

 

 

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 1496 (+56 or +3.89%)

Gold continues to outperform however this market is now moving into an area of heavy resistance.

For a continued move higher we must now see this market close above 1505. Should this occur, we will look for a move to 1526 ; and if momentum remains very strong, a strong break above this level could see Gold rally quickly into 1540 and 1552.

If Gold cannot hold above 1433, we will look for a move back down into 1480. A strong break and close below this level could send this market lower into 1470 , and if momentum is strong to the downside we cannot rule out a move lower into 1470.

 

 

 

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The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, holding or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View Investments accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.

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