11th November 2019 Market Brief

Market Brief – Monday 11th November 2019

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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UPCOMING EVENTS

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INDICES

 

AUSTRALASIA

 

ASX – 6753 ( +54 or +0.81% )

 

The ASX finished the week higher and this will be an interesting week for this market. We will be discussing this in the MEMBER PORTAL this week.

 

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – NAB Business Confidence
Wed 10:30 – Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Wed 11:30 – Wage Price Index (quarterly)
Thu 11:30 – Unemployment Rate

 

For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX hold above 6682. Should this occur, we will look for a test of 6804. If momentum to the upside continues we could see a retest of 6850, and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out rule out a move to 7011.

If the ASX cannot hold above 6682, we will look for a move back down to 6635. A strong break and close below this level however could see the ASX retest 6544 before a pause; and if downside momentum is very strong, we could see a move down to 6435.

 

EUROPE

 

DAX – 13261 ( +293 or +2.26% )

 

The DAX was very strong last week reaching our resistance levels and this week all eyes are on this market to see if the bulls have what it takes to rally yet again this week.

 

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 21:00 – German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Thu 18:00 – German Prelim GDP (quarterly)

Sat 04:00 – German Buba President Weidmann Speaks

 

For a continued move to the upside we would now like to see the DAX close above 13388, on its way to retesting 13520. A strong break and close above this level could see a fast move to 13697, and if momentum is very strong, we could see a sharp move higher into 13819.

 

If the DAX fails to hold above 13388, we could see a move back down into 13205. A break below this level could mean a strong move down into the key 13050 level.

 

 

US

 

SP500 – 3092 ( +27 or +0.88% )

 

The S&P has yet again moved to new all-time highs for the second straight week. We will be discussing this in more detail in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.

 

NOTE: Tuesday is a holiday in the US (Veteran’s Day)

 

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 00:30 – CPI (monthly)
Thu 03:00 – FED Chair Powell Testifies
Fri 00:30 – PPI (monthly)
Fri 02:00 – FED Chair Powell Testifies
Sat 00:30 – Retail Sales (monthly)

 

For a move higher we would like to see the S&P hold above 3066. Should this occur, we will look for a move to 3100. A strong break above this level however sets the stage for a move higher into 3140.

If we cannot hold above 3066, we could see this market retest 3020. A break of this level however may result in quick move down to 3003; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see a fast move down to 2985.

 

 

 

FOREX

 

AUD/USD – 0.6858 ( -55 or -0.8% )

 

The Aussie Dollar took a break last week and is now consolidating beneath the important 70c level.

 

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – NAB Business Confidence
Wed 10:30 – Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Wed 11:30 – Wage Price Index (quarterly)
Thu 11:30 – Unemployment Rate

 

For a move higher, we would first like to see the AUD close above 0.6873. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6934, and if upside momentum remains very strong we cannot rule out a move to 0.7014 before a pause.

 

If the AUD cannot close above 0.6873, we will look for a move lower into 0.6825. A break and close below this level however could see a sharp decline into 0.6762.

 

 

EUR/USD – 1.1019 ( -146 or -1.31% )

 

Facing pressure from a rising US Dollar, last week saw the EURO sell-off aggressively back into the 1.10 area.

 

NOTE: Monday is a holiday in France (Armistice Day)

 

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 21:00 – German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Thu 18:00 – German Prelim GDP (quarterly)

 

For a move higher this week, we would like to see the EURO close above 1.1033; followed by a break back above 1.1197. Should this occur, we cannot rule out a move to 1.1249 if momentum remains strong.

 

If the EURO cannot close above 1.1033, we could see a move back down into 1.0977. If this market continues to sell-off, we could see a sharp move down into 1.0902 and 1.0814 by the week’s end.

 

 

GBP/USD – 1.2780 ( -158 or -1.22% )

 

This week is yet another important week for the British Pound as this market tests the lower end of its consolidation. 

 

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 20:30 – Prelim GDP (quarterly)
Tue 20:30 – Average Earnings Index (quarterly)
Wed 20:30 – CPI (annual)
Thu 20:30 – Retail Sales (monthly)

 

For a move to the upside, we would like to see Cable hold above 1.2720, followed by a retest of 1.2868 before a pause. Should this occur, we will look for a move to 1.3035 and 1.3161; and if momentum is very strong, we could see a re-test of 1.3191.

On the downside, should we fail to hold above 1.2720, we will be watching the key level at 1.2622 very closely. A strong break below this level however sets this market up for a bigger move down into 1.2480.

 

 

USD/JPY – 109.24 ( +107 or +0.99% )

 

The $/YEN was again stronger last week but faces stiff resistance up ahead. We will be discussing the ongoing impact of this in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.

 

For a move to the upside we must now see this market hold above 109.21, on its way to retesting 109.94 before a pause. A strong break and close above this level could then see the $/YEN rally into 110.31, and if momentum is very strong we could see moves to 110.78 and 111.09.

 

If we cannot hold above 109.21, we could see a fast move lower into 108.31. A break below this level may result in a retest of 107.75 before a pause. Should we break lower however, we could see a strong move down into 107.36.

 

 

COMMODITIES

 

GOLD – 1459 ( -54 or -3.57% )

 

Gold continues to grind its way lower and we are now quickly approaching the all-important 1450 level.

 

For a continued move higher we must now see this market hold above 1450. Should this occur, we will look for a retest of 1470; and if momentum remains very strong, a strong break above this level could see Gold rally quickly into 1480 and 1505.

 

If Gold cannot hold above 1450, we will look for a move back down into 1433. A strong break and close below this level could send this market lower into 1416, and if momentum is strong to the downside we cannot rule out a move lower into 1402.

 

 

 

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