Trade View Market Brief - 10th July 2017

Market Brief – Monday 10th July 2017

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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INDICES

ASX – 5715 ( +3 or +0.05% )

The ASX remained flat last last week having closed right where we opened.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – NAB Business Confidence

For a continued move higher we would like to see the ASX close above 5746, followed by a strong break above 5777. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 5823, and a strong close above this may result in a move to 5875. If momentum is strong we will then look for a rally into 5921 and 5925.

If the ASX cannot close above 5746, we are likely to see another retest of 5671. A close below this level may result in more selling into 5606 and if momentum is very strong 5582 cannot be ruled out.

 

EUROPE

DAX – 12415 ( +39 or +0.32% )

Like the ASX, the DAX has also been quiet and we are again on watch for a big break up/down in this market. We will be discussing this market exclusively in the LIVE CHAT ROOM.

For a continued move to the upside we must now see the DAX hold above 12384. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 12536 and the important 12714 level before a potential pause. If we can break and close strongly through 12714 we will then look for a move to 12880 – 12900.

If the DAX fails to hold above 12384, we are likely to see a move lower into 12198. A break below this level could see further downside into 12044; and if momentum is very strong to the downside we cannot rule out a move to 11875.

 

US

SP500 – 2424 ( -0 or -0.00% )

The S&P again struggled at 2440 however we did not see much downside before buyers re-appeared. This week our levels remain unchanged.

NOTE: Tuesday is a public holiday (Independance Day).

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 00:00 – Yellen Testifies (Day 1)
Thu 22:30 – Moonthly PPI
Fri 00:00 – Yellen Testifies (Day 2)
Fri 22:30 – Monthly CPI
Fri 22:30 – Retail Sales

For a move higher we would like to see the S&P hold above our key level at 2418, followed by a strong break and close above 2440. Should this occur we anticipate further upside over the following week. Our next upside targets remain at 2465 and 2477.

If we cannot hold above 2418, we will look for a move to retest strong support at 2400. A strong break below this level could see the S&P spike to 2392, and a close below this level could see this market trade 2386 by week’s end.

 

FOREX

AUD/USD – 0.7604 ( -82 or -1.07% )

The Aussie Dollar has not posted a short-term high which may prove to be pivotal going forward. We will be discussing this in more detail in the MEMBER PORTAL.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – NAB Business Confidence

For a move higher we must now see this market close above 0.7617. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 0.7677. A strong break and close above this key level could see this market rally to 0.7729, and if momentum is strong our next level higher is 0.7833.

On the downside, we continue to watch 0.7617 for a retest, however a strong break below will likely result in a move back down to 0.7561. If momentum remains strong to the downside, we could quickly see 0.7489.

 

EUR/USD – 1.1400 ( -19 or -0.17% )

With another week of very little news; we will be watching how sentiment shapes the EURO again this week. We will be discussing this in more detail in the LIVE CHAT ROOM.

(NOTE: Friday is a holiday in France – National Day)

For a sustained move higher we would like to see the EURO close 1.1453 on its way to testing 1.1496. Should this occur we could see a very strong move to 1.1613 before a pause.

If the EURO cannot hold above 1.1453, we will watch for a move back down to 1.1347. A break below this level could see this market trade down to 1.1281, and further breaks to the downside may result in a move to 1.1201.

 

GBP/USD – 1.2885 ( -142 or -1.09% )

The Pound continues to confirm our scenario shown last month and we are now sitting right at a very key level.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 18:30 – Unemployment Rate
Thu 18:30 – BoE Credit Conditions Survey

For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable break strongly above 1.3035 on its way to testing 1.3085 before a potential pause. However a strong and close above this level could see the Pound rally into 1.3277.

If we fail to test and close above 1.3085, we will look for a move back down to 1.2868. A break below this level could then see this market trade back into 1.2720 before a pause. If momentum is strong and we break and close below 1.2720, we could see a sharp move lower into 1.2600.

 

USD/JPY – 113.89 ( +148 or +1.32% )

The YEN continues to grind higher and is now in a very interesting position given the ‘relative’ weakness of the $US dollar. We will be discussing this in more detail in the LIVE CHAT ROOM.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 09:50 – Tankan Manufacturing Index
Mon 09:50 – Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index

For a continued move to the upside we must first see this market hold above 113.86. Should this occur we will look for a retest of retest 114.52. A break above this level may see the $/YEN move higher into 115.54, and if momentum is very strong we will look for a move to 116.08.

If we cannot hold above 113.86 we will look for a move back down into 112.39. A break below this level is likely to result in a retest of 111.73; and as we mentioned last week: Should we break below 111.73 WATCH OUT- the move that follows may be very sharp into 111.09 and 109.94.

 

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 1241 ( -15 or -1.19% )

GOLD continues to drift lower amidst weaker commodity prices and we are now again near important levels.

For a continued move higher we want to see this market now hold above 1206. Should this occur we will look for a move higher back up to 1222. A break of this level could see GOLD rally much higher back up into 1247.

If Gold cannot hold above 1206, we will look for a move lower into the very important 1187-1181 area. Should we break below these levels, we are likely to see GOLD trade lower into 1170.

 

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